True Contrarian Investments LLC
Steven Jon Kaplan began TrueContrarian.com in August 1996 as a weekly blog and later expanded this to a daily newsletter with intraday updates in February 2006. He has been trading his own account, and those of family and close friends, since 1981, and handles separately managed accounts for qualified clients. As a registered investment advisor, Steve charges a 20 % performance fee on net profits and no management fees. He has been quoted in Barron's, Market Watch, Dow Jones Newswires, Seeking Alpha, Kitco, and elsewhere and has appeared on Market Watch cable TV with Stacey Delo.
Steven's goal is to identify those assets which are farthest away from the best estimates of their realistic fair-value levels. This is done through designing algorithms which examine the most reliable signals in the financial markets. These include insider buying relative to selling; investor inflows and outflows; media and advisors' sentiment; and intraday behavior especially near multi-decade tops and bottoms. He studies historical interrelationships to mathematically identify which divergences from typical behavior are pointing the way toward essential trend changes.
Steve enjoys running with the New York Road Runners Club, composing and performing on piano and voice, writing stories, and traveling to unique places. He enjoys hearing from anyone about a wide range of topics, so please let him know what you think about the web site or whatever is on your mind. You can find his music on ReverbNation.
BES, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, The Johns Hopkins University
Assets Under Management:
20% of net profits; zero management fees.
True Contrarian Investments LLC
Steven Jon Kaplan explains why investors repeatedly fool themselves.
Steven Jon Kaplan: April 2010 conference
Do you believe in magic? In a young girl's heart, perhaps, but not in most things in life. You can get slightly more than 2% in a 2-year U.S. Treasury and the interest is free of state and local income taxes, but if you want a higher yield then you will have to take some kind of risk which unfortunately may correlate with the assets you have just sold. For example, if you purchase emerging-market government bonds then they may perform reasonably well, but if the U.S. dollar is rising at any point then they could also lose money. You could buy longer-dated U.S. Treasuries like the 30-year yielding about 3%, and I have recently purchased some TLT which invests in U.S. Treasuries which on average mature in 26 years. However, those could lose value if interest rates climb higher. If you buy corporate bonds, especially high-yielding ones, they will move lower along with a falling stock market and junk-bond yields have never been lower in their entire history than they were in January 2018.
The bottom line is that there is no free lunch. If you want safety then 2% annualized in a one-year or 15-month bank CD makes sense. It is sensible to reduce risk when we are still near all-time highs. Good luck and don't expect a genie when you rub a bottle.
As long as 1) you entered a binding contract with the seller or you began construction within 120 days of withdrawing the 10 thousand dollars from your traditional IRA, and 2) you did not previously own any home for two full years prior to that date, you will be okay. Be sure to fill out Form 5329 when you do your federal income tax and fill out exception "09" on that form which is the exception for an IRA withdrawal to fund a "first-time" home purchase.
If you are a current employee then your current employer decides all the rules. So you can only move money from other accounts into your new Schwab Workplace 401(k) if your current employer gives you permission to do so.
As for the money you earned with previous employers or with your own personal IRA accounts, you can do whatever you want with those. If you have money in a 401(k) or a 403(b) with a former employer then you can have the after-tax amount transferred into a Roth IRA with your favorite custodian and you can also have the before-tax amount transferred into a traditional IRA with the same custodian or with another custodian. The before-tax and after-tax portions must be kept separate whenever they are withdrawn to make their tax status clear to the IRS.
I disagree that a higher bank balance will make it more difficult to get a mortgage. As long as you are not borrowing money through other methods, the more you have in cash the better off you will be in obtaining any kind of a loan. I might recommend that you wait for a recession to occur first since then you will usually pay much less for real estate.
Every other advisor is going to tell you to hang in there, that it's a healthy correction, that it's temporary, and so on, but we had all-time record inflows into U.S. equity and corporate-bond funds in January 2018 as inexperienced investors flooded out of bank accounts to buy risky assets. I think it is important to sell all of your funds except for U.S. Treasuries and to be as conservative as possible with your money, because we have already had two major bear markets since 2000 and this could be the third with a total drop of two-thirds or more for most U.S. equity indices and funds.