Steven Jon Kaplan

Series 65
Personal Finance, Retirement, Investing
“As the CEO of True Contrarian, Steven Kaplan is committed to continually researching the latest developments in the global financial markets.”

True Contrarian Investments LLC

Job Title:



Steven Jon Kaplan began in August 1996 as a weekly blog and later expanded this to a daily newsletter with intraday updates in February 2006.  He has been trading his own account, and those of family and close friends, since 1981, and handles separately managed accounts for qualified clients. As a registered investment advisor, Steve charges a 20 % performance fee on net profits and no management fees.  He has been quoted in Barron's, Market Watch, Dow Jones Newswires, Seeking Alpha, Kitco, and elsewhere and has appeared on Market Watch cable TV with Stacey Delo.

Steven's goal is to identify those assets which are farthest away from the best estimates of their realistic fair-value levels. This is done through designing algorithms which examine the most reliable signals in the financial markets. These include insider buying relative to selling; investor inflows and outflows; media and advisors' sentiment; and intraday behavior especially near multi-decade tops and bottoms. He studies historical interrelationships to mathematically identify which divergences from typical behavior are pointing the way toward essential trend changes.

Steve enjoys running with the New York Road Runners Club, composing and performing on piano and voice, writing stories, and traveling to unique places.  He enjoys hearing from anyone about a wide range of topics, so please let him know what you think about the web site or whatever is on your mind.  You can find his music on ReverbNation.


BES, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, The Johns Hopkins University

Assets Under Management:

$24 million

Fee Structure:

20% of net profits; zero management fees.

CRD Number:


  • True Contrarian Investments LLC
  • Steven Jon Kaplan explains why investors repeatedly fool themselves.
  • Steven Jon Kaplan: April 2010 conference
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    Mutual Funds
If I want to pull my money out of mutual funds during a market correction, where should I move them to avoid a dip in value?
50% of people found this answer helpful

Do you believe in magic?  In a young girl's heart, perhaps, but not in most things in life.  You can get slightly more than 2% in a 2-year U.S. Treasury and the interest is free of state and local income taxes, but if you want a higher yield then you will have to take some kind of risk which unfortunately may correlate with the assets you have just sold.  For example, if you purchase emerging-market government bonds then they may perform reasonably well, but if the U.S. dollar is rising at any point then they could also lose money.  You could buy longer-dated U.S. Treasuries like the 30-year yielding about 3%, and I have recently purchased some TLT which invests in U.S. Treasuries which on average mature in 26 years.  However, those could lose value if interest rates climb higher.  If you buy corporate bonds, especially high-yielding ones, they will move lower along with a falling stock market and junk-bond yields have never been lower in their entire history than they were in January 2018.


The bottom line is that there is no free lunch.  If you want safety then 2% annualized in a one-year or 15-month bank CD makes sense.  It is sensible to reduce risk when we are still near all-time highs.  Good luck and don't expect a genie when you rub a bottle.

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    IRAs, Real Estate, Taxes
How can I avoid the penalty for early withdrawal from my traditional IRA on the $10,000 I spent on my first house?
75% of people found this answer helpful
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    401(k), IRAs
Can I roll over my 401(k) account through Capital One ShareBuilder to my Vanguard Roth IRA, or into my Charles Schwab Workplace 401(k), even though they are different brokerages? 
0% of people found this answer helpful
last month
    Financial Planning, Mutual Funds, Real Estate
At what point in the process of applying for a mortgage should I sell a mutual fund that I will use for the down payment on a house?
50% of people found this answer helpful
last month
    Retirement, Investing, 401(k)
Should I sit tight and wait for the market to go back up?
0% of people found this answer helpful
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