All EV By 2030, Say UK Govt and Tesla-Backed Lobby Group

As Tesla bulls bask in its new prestige from being approved to join the S&P 500 index, and investors in China's Nio celebrate its better-than-expected Q3 earnings and guidance, we're seeing more buzz about the demise of internal combustion vehicles. Electric vehicle goals are being accelerated as governments plan for green recoveries following the COVID-19 recession.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson today unveiled his £12 billion, 10-point "Green Industrial Revolution" plan to create and support highly-skilled 250,000 jobs. The U.K. now aims to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, ten years earlier than planned. The sale of hybrid cars and vans that can drive a significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe will be allowed until 2035.

To support this there will be an investment of £1.3 billion in charging stations, £582 million in grants or subsidies for customers, and nearly £500 million in the development and mass-scale production of electric vehicle batteries.

Global Green Trend

This is part of a larger trend of technological resets governments all over the world are promising and environmentalists are hoping for in the wake of the pandemic. For example, the Biden administration has its version of the Green New Deal which aims for net-zero emissions no later than 2050, countries in the EU like Germany and France want a "green recovery" and India's Modi is talking of drawing more investment to build smart cities. In September, California announced it will require sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035.

By 2025, EVs will account for 10% of global passenger vehicle sales, rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040, according to BloombergNEF. (see chart above) A growing industry is betting on the transition, which relies greatly on battery costs falling and bringing about price parity with internal combustion vehicles. Twenty-eight companies, including Tesla, Uber, and ConEdison, yesterday announced the creation of Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA), the first electric vehicle U.S. lobbying group. Its goal is national policies that ensure 100% of new light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle sales are electric by 2030, and it can't be a coincidence that it was formed just as Biden is poised to enter the White House.

In related news, China's ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing and manufacturer BYD have developed an electric car to be sold exclusively to DiDi’s registered operators for leasing to DiDi drivers.