A gain of 17.34% the past three months for shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) likely couldn't have happened without big investors buying shares. This buying is quite recent, and as the search company keeps making big profits, shareholders could be rewarded handsomely. We think the rush for this stock is happening now.
A great way to uncover tomorrow's winners is to look for great stocks seeing big buy activity, and Alphabet could be just the opportunity. Smart money managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks … the best in class. For Mapsignals, it's not enough to look at technicals and fundamentals alone. The key lies in the demand for shares … the big money.
I'll go into the fundamental picture later, but the true tell on the near-term trajectory of a stock lies in its trading activity. Simply put, it's all about supply and demand. When demand is higher than supply, the stock rises. When demand is lower than supply, stocks fall. For the back half of 2019, Alphabet has seen relentless demand – i.e., big buying. As the company demonstrates more and more advertisements on its platforms, the focus looks to be on the next leg higher for the stock.
For Mapsignals, when we look for an entry on a leading stock, we look for big money signals. Just to show you what our big money activity signals look like, have a look at all of the big money (unusual institutional) signals Alphabet stock has made over the past year. Focusing on 2019, you can see a lot of buy signals (green) throughout the back half of the year. What's happening now is big buying rushing in:
Since September, Alphabet stock has logged 15 big money buy signals, indicative of buying in the shares (see chart above). This shows that traders are likely thinking that the shares are poised to head higher. These data points suggest that big money appetite for this stock is high.
If you are going to make a bet on the direction of a stock, it is prudent to pay attention to how the shares are trading. Based on history, the odds suggest that Alphabet stock is poised for gains. The big money is always looking for an opportunity to buy shares on the cheap. It's all about playing the odds by not fighting the trend.
Mapsignals' goal is to identify tomorrow's top stocks today. We're basically looking for outlier companies with healthy fundamentals accompanied by big money signals (outsized institutional activity). We are looking for the big money bets because big money moves stocks. By studying these data points, we can make an educated guess as to which stocks institutions are trafficking in and marry this information with fundamentally sound companies. We want the odds on our side when looking for the highest-quality stocks.
When we decide on a long candidate, we consider leaders that have a history of technical outperformance. When they show leadership, we see these as opportunities. Below are a few areas in which Alphabet stock has grabbed our attention:
- Three-month outperformance vs. market: +6.75% vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Three-month outperformance vs. technology ETF: +1.24% vs. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
- Recent big money buy signals
Now, we take it a step further and score the best stocks showing big money trading activity. Below you can see that Alphabet stock has been firing off buy signals for Mapsignals since 2019. The main takeaway is how the buy signals tend to keep showing up as the stock accelerates higher. We think a new round of buy signals could be upon us soon:
On top of a long-term technical picture that is strong, one should also look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, Alphabet's earnings growth is very strong, and its revenue growth rate is impressive. We think the advertising ramp will cause the revenue growth rate to stay elevated:
- Three-year revenue growth rate: +23.01%
- Three-year earnings growth rate: +43%
Alphabet shares are breaking out as the market breaks to new highs. The company is quietly gaining with demand for its shares. We like the long-term story of the stock. The narrative for Alphabet is that engagement is growing and profits keep falling to the bottom line.
We are always on the lookout for great companies pressing higher year after year. The best companies in a group tend to outperform over the long run. Top advertising stocks have been a strong group recent years. All of this points to a long-term opportunity for Alphabet stock.
The Bottom Line
Alphabet stock is breaking out with buying pressure. Our big money indicator is signaling that we should take notice. Shares could be positioned for more upside. Given the historical growth in share price and growing fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.
Disclosure: The author holds a long position in Alphabet shares at the time of publication.