Financial Ratios to Spot Companies Headed for Bankruptcy

While investors evaluate equities using several different analytical perspectives, including profitability ratios, income ratios, and liquidity ratios, they should be careful to include financial ratios that can specifically be used to provide early warning signals of possible impending bankruptcy. There are key ratios that can provide such warnings well in advance, giving investors plenty of time to dispose of their equity interest before the financial roof falls in.

Key Takeaways

  • In addition to profitability ratios, investors benefit from using financial ratios to evaluate investments, especially as a signal of impending bankruptcy.
  • The current ratio evaluates how well a company handles its short-term debts.
  • The operating cash flow to sales ratio evaluates how well a company generates cash from sales.
  • The debt-to-equity ratio measures a company's ability to meet its financing obligations and its financing structure.
  • The cash flow to debt ratio shows how long it takes for a company to resolve all debt if all of its cash flows or free cash flows were allocated to it.

Current Ratio

The current ratio, which simply divides current assets by current liabilities, is one of the primary liquidity ratios used for evaluating a company's financial soundness. It evaluates a company's capability of handling all its short-term debt obligations, by measuring the adequacy of the company's current resources to cover all of its debt obligations for the next 12 months.

A higher current ratio indicates that the company has more liquidity. Generally, a current ratio of 2 or higher is considered healthy. A ratio of less than 1 is a definite warning sign.

Operating Cash Flow to Sales

Cash and cash flow are key to the success and survival of any business. The operating cash flow to sales ratio—operating cash flow divided by sales revenues—indicates a company's ability to generate cash from its sales. The ideal relationship between operating cash flow and sales is one of parallel increases.

If cash flows do not increase in line with sales increases, this is cause for concern, and it may be an indication of inefficient management of costs or accounts receivables. As with the current ratio, generally speaking, the higher this ratio is, the better. Analysts prefer to see improving, or at least consistent, numbers over time.

Debt/Equity Ratio

The debt/equity (D/E) ratio, a leverage ratio, is one of the most frequently used ratios for evaluating a company's financial health. It provides a primary measure of a company's ability to meet financing obligations and of the structure of a company's financing, whether it comes more from equity investors or more from debt financing. If this ratio is high or increasing, it indicates the company is overly dependent on financing from creditors as opposed to capital provided by equity investors.

Both equity financing and debt financing can be beneficial for a company; both have their pros and cons. Debt financing is not a bad option as long as it is managed well.

The ratio is also important because it is one of the factors considered by lenders. If lenders believe the ratio is getting uncomfortably high, they may be unwilling to extend further credit to the company. An optimal D/E ratio is about 1, where equity roughly equals liabilities. Although the D/E ratio varies between industries, the general rule is that a ratio higher than 2 is considered unhealthy.

Cash Flow to Debt Ratio

Cash flow is essential to any business. No business can operate without the necessary cash to pay bills; make payments on loans, rentals, or mortgages; meet payroll; and pay necessary taxes. The cash flow to debt ratio, calculated as cash flow from operations divided by total debt, is sometimes considered the single best predictor of financial business failure.

This coverage ratio indicates the theoretical period that it would take a company to retire all of its outstanding debt if 100% of its cash flow was dedicated to debt payment. A higher ratio indicates a company is more soundly capable of covering its debt.

Some analysts use free cash flow instead of cash flow from operations in the calculation because free cash flow factors in capital expenditures. A ratio higher than 1 is generally considered healthy, but any value below 1 is commonly interpreted as signaling impending bankruptcy within a few years unless the company takes steps to substantially improve its financial condition.

Another metric often used to predict potential bankruptcy is the Z-score, which is a combination of several financial ratios used to produce a single composite score.

What Financial Ratios Determine Bankruptcy?

There are a handful of financial ratios that can help determine if a company is heading toward bankruptcy. These include the gross profit margin, the cash flow to debt ratio, the debt to equity ratio, and the current ratio.

What Financial Ratios Do Creditors Look At?

The financial ratios that creditors look at are the cash flow to debt ratio, the quick ratio, and the debt to service coverage ratio.

What Debt/Equity Ratio Is Considered Bankruptcy Risk?

A debt/equity ratio of 2 or higher is considered to be indicative of a company that may end up bankrupt. The higher the number, the more the company has in liabilities than assets, which means it is relying on its debt over its equity, which is risky.

The Bottom Line

Financial ratios help understand a company's financial statements and put the numbers into context. It's important to use financial ratios to gain an understanding of any company you are thinking of investing in or are already invested in and wondering if you should continue to do so. These ratios will provide insight that will guide you in your investing decisions.

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  2. AccountingTools. "Cash Flow To Sales Ratio."