Why Stocks Generally Outperform Bonds

Stocks provide greater return potential than bonds, but with greater volatility along the way. Bonds are issued and sold as a "safe" alternative to the generally bumpy ride of the stock market. Stocks involve greater risk, but with the opportunity of greater return.

Key Takeaways

  • Bond rates are lower over time than the general return of the stock market.
  • Individual stocks may outperform bonds by a significant margin, but they are also at a much higher risk of loss.
  • Bonds will always be less volatile on average than stocks because more is known and certain about their income flow.
  • More unknowns surround the performance of stocks, which increases their risk factor and their volatility.

More Risk Equals More Return

For an example of stocks and bonds in the real world, you can consider that bonds are essentially loans. Investors loan funds to companies or governments in exchange for a bond that guarantees a fixed return and a promise to repay the original loan amount, known as the principal, at some point in the future.

Stocks are, in essence, partial ownership rights in the company that entitle the stockholder to share in the earnings that may occur and accrue. Some of these earnings may be paid out immediately in the form of dividends, while the rest of the earnings will be retained. These retained earnings may be used to expand operations or build a larger infrastructure, giving the company the ability to generate even greater future earnings.

Other retained earnings may be held for future uses like buying back company stock or making strategic acquisitions of other companies. Regardless of the use, if the earnings continue to rise, the price of the stock will normally rise as well.

Stocks have historically delivered higher returns than bonds because there is a greater risk that, if the company fails, all of the stockholders' investment will be lost (unlike bondholders who might recoup fully or partially the principal of their lending). However, a stock's price will also rise in spite of this risk when the company performs well, and can even work in the investor's favor. Stock investors will judge the amount they are willing to pay for a share of stock based on the perceived risk and the expected return potential—a return potential that is driven by expected earnings growth.

The Causes of Volatility

If a bond pays a known, fixed rate of return, what causes it to fluctuate in value? Several interrelated factors influence volatility.

1. Inflation and the Time Value of Money

The first factor is expected inflation. The lower or higher the inflation expectation, the lower or higher, respectively, the return or yield bond buyers will demand. This is because of a concept known as the time value of money, which revolves around the realization that a dollar in the future will buy less than a dollar today because its value is eroded over time by inflation. To determine the value of that future dollar in today's terms, you have to discount its value back over time at some rate.

2. Discount Rates and Present Value

To calculate the present value of a particular bond, therefore, you must discount the future payments from the bond, both in the form of interest payments and return of principal. The higher the expected inflation, the higher the discount rate that must be used, and thus the lower the present value.

In addition, the farther out the payment, the longer the discount rate is applied, resulting in a lower present value. Bond payments may be fixed and known, but the constantly changing interest-rate environment subjects their payment streams to a constantly changing discount rate and thus a constantly fluctuating present value. Because the original payment stream of the bond is fixed, the changing bond price will change its current effective yield. As the bond price falls, the effective yield rises; as the bond price rises, the effective yield falls.

More Factors Influencing Bond Value

The discount rate used is not just a function of inflation expectations. Any risk that the bond issuer may default (fail to make interest payments or return the principal) will call for an increase in the discount rate applied, which will impact the bond's current value. Discount rates are subjective, meaning different investors will be using different rates depending on their own inflation expectations and opinions about the bond issuer's creditworthiness that factor into their own personal risk assessments. The present value of the bond is the consensus of all these different calculations.

The return from bonds is typically fixed and known, but what is the return from stocks? In its purest form, the relevant return from stocks is known as free cash flow, but in practice, the market tends to focus on reported earnings. These earnings are unknown and variable. They may grow quickly or slowly, not at all, or even shrink or go negative.

To calculate the present value, you have to make the best guess as to what those future earnings will be. To make matters more difficult, these earnings do not have a fixed lifespan. They may continue for decades and decades. To this ever-changing expected return flow, you are applying an ever-changing discount rate. Stock prices are more volatile than bond prices because calculating the present value involves two constantly changing factors: the earnings stream and the discount rate.

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