The national unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed workers in the total labor force. It is widely recognized as a key indicator of labor market performance. A closely watched economic indicator, the unemployment rate attracts a great deal of media attention, especially during recessions and tough economic times. But unemployment doesn't just affect those people who are out of work - the level and persistence of unemployment has wide-ranging impacts across the broader economy.
- The unemployment rate is the proportion of unemployed persons in the labor force.
- Unemployment adversely affects the disposable income of families, erodes purchasing power, diminishes employee morale, and reduces an economies output.
- The Current Population Survey (CPS) evaluates the extent of unemployment in the US, with measures ranging from U-1, the most strict, to U-6, the most inclusive.
- The official measure of unemployment in the US is U-3, which qualified the unemployed as those who do not have a job, those who have actively searched for work in the prior four weeks, and those who are available for work.
Why the Unemployment Rate Matters
As the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) notes, when workers are unemployed, their families lose wages, and the nation as a whole loses their contribution to the economy in terms of the goods or services that could have been produced. Unemployed workers also lose their purchasing power, which can lead to unemployment for other workers, creating a cascading effect that ripples through the economy.
Importantly, unemployment even affects those who are still employed. When workers are let go, it increases the amount of work those who are still employed have to cover. And because unemployment usually increases when companies are trying to cut costs, those expected to pick up the slack are not receiving any additional compensation for extra hours worked. Unemployment can also have a negative mental effect on those who are still working. They may become more concerned about losing their jobs or be hesitant to look for something better because they "are lucky" to be employed at all. They may even feel guilty about having a job when their co-workers are out of work. High unemployment is also a problematic state for the U.S. economy. Over 70% of what the U.S. economy produces goes to personal consumption and unemployed workers consume far less than those with steady income.
To better understand the nature of unemployment, policymakers need information on many aspects of it, including the number of unemployed people, the period for which they have been unemployed, their skill levels, the trend in unemployment, regional disparities in unemployment, and so on. Once these statistics have been obtained and interpreted, policymakers can use them to make better-informed decisions about steering the economy and countering unemployment.
Compiling Labor Statistics
One misconception about the unemployment rate is that it is derived from the number of people filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. But the number of UI claimants does not provide accurate information on the extent of unemployment since people may still be jobless after their benefits run out, while others may not be eligible for benefits or may not even have applied for them.
Counting every unemployed person monthly would also be very expensive, time-consuming, and impractical. Therefore, the US government conducts a sample survey—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—to measure the extent of unemployment in the nation. The US has conducted the CPS monthly since 1940. About 60,000 households, or approximately 110,000 individuals, are in the CPS sample survey, selected to be representative of the entire US population. A typical household included in the sample survey is interviewed monthly for four consecutive months and then again for the same four calendar months a year later.
The survey is carried out by 2,200 trained and experienced Census Bureau employees. They interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on labor force activities or non-labor force status of their household members during the survey reference week (generally the week that includes the twelfth of the month).
When a sample survey is used, there is a chance that the sample estimates may differ from the actual population values. The BLS notes if, at an unemployment rate of 5.5%, the 90% confidence interval is about +/- 280,000 for the monthly change in unemployment and is about +/- 0.19% for the unemployment rate. In other words, there is a 90% chance the monthly unemployment estimate from the sample is within about 280,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census of the entire population.
Employment vs. Unemployment
The basic definitions used by the BLS in compiling labor statistics are quite straightforward:
- People with jobs are employed.
- People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
- People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
The Labor Force
The sum of employed and unemployed people makes up the labor force. The remainder consists of people who have no jobs and are not looking for any. These typically include students, retirees, and homemakers.
Note, labor force measures, such as the unemployment rate, are based on the civilian noninstitutional US population age 16 and older. Labor force measures exclude persons who are below age 16, people confined to institutions- such as nursing homes and prisons -, and all personnel on active duty in the Armed Forces.
While the basic concepts that determine whether an individual is employed or unemployed are simple, given the millions of people that constitute the US labor force, numerous situations can complicate matters and make it difficult to ascertain the correct category to which a person belongs.
People are considered employed if they did any work for pay or profit during the survey week. People are also counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week, for reasons such as being on vacation, falling ill, doing some personal work, etc.
(For related reading, see: What You Need to Know About the Employment Report.)
People are classified as unemployed if they fulfill the following three criteria:
- Do not have a job
- Have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks
- Are currently available for work
The official unemployment rate widely quoted in the media is based on the above definition of unemployment.
The criteria for being considered unemployed are rigorous and well-defined. For example, actively looking for work includes measures such as contacting prospective employers, attending job interviews, visiting an employment agency, sending out resumes, and responding to job advertisements. Therefore, this excludes passive methods of job search, such as attending a training course or scanning the job advertisements in newspapers.
As such, the total unemployment figure includes people who have lost their jobs, as well as persons who have left their jobs to look for other employment, temporary workers whose jobs have ended, individuals looking for their first jobs, and experienced workers returning to the labor force.
(For more, see: How Is Unemployment Defined?)
Measures of Unemployment
The official unemployment rate has often been cited as being too restrictive and not representative of the true breadth of labor market problems. Some analysts contend the official unemployment measure is too broad, and they would like a more narrowly targeted measure. However, they are the minority, a group outnumbered by those who believe the unemployment rate is too narrowly defined. These differences result in the full dimensions of the unemployment problem being understated.
In 1976, the BLS, under the direction of Commissioner Julius Shiskin, introduced a range of labor market measures entitled U-1 through U-6. In 1995, following the redesign of the Current Population Survey in the previous year, the BLS introduced a new range of alternative measures of labor underutilization. Regular publication of these measures commenced with the February 1996 Employment Situation report.
The measures range from U-1, which is the most restrictive since it only includes those people who were jobless for at least 15 weeks, to U-6, the broadest definition of labor underutilization. The U-3 measure is the official unemployment rate. U-1 and U-2 are more restrictive and therefore lower than U-3, while U-4, U-5, and U-6 are higher than U-3. (For related reading, see: The True Unemployment Rate: U6 vs. U3.)
U-6: The Real Unemployment Rate
The U-6 measure provides the broadest measure of labor underutilization. BLS defines it as the "total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."
Marginally attached workers are defined as persons without jobs who are not currently looking for work (and hence not considered unemployed) but who have demonstrated some degree of labor force attachment. To be included in this category, individuals must indicate they currently want a job, have looked for work in the last 12 months, and are available for work.
One subset of the marginally attached group is discouraged workers. Discouraged workers are those who are not currently looking for work because they:
- Believe no job is available in their line of work
- Have been unable to find work
- Lack the necessary schooling, skills, or experience
- Face some form of discrimination from employers (for example, being too young or too old)
The U-6 measure is being increasingly referred to as the real unemployment rate. Proponents of this measure contend it represents the true nature of the unemployment problem since it includes:
- People without jobs
- Those who would like to work but have not actively sought jobs in the past four weeks due to issues such as child care, family obligations, or other temporary problems
- Discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work because they think it is futile
- Underemployed people, which include those who are employed but are working fewer hours than they would like
The Unemployment Test
Consider the following hypothetical cases as examples of how the official unemployment rate (U-3) understates the magnitude of the labor underutilization problem:
- A single mother who has been unemployed for three months but was unavailable for work for the past two weeks to care for her sick child would be classified as "not in the labor force." She would be excluded from the U-3 measure but would be included in the U-6 measure.
- A 60-year-old former executive who lost his job in a corporate restructuring a year ago is keen to return to the workforce. However, after sending out more than 100 resumes in the first three months of unemployment, he is discouraged because he has not received an interview call or acknowledgment letter; as a result, he stopped his job-hunting efforts. He would be excluded from the U-3 measure but would be included in the U-6 measure.
- A sales executive with a family to support and bills to pay has been unable to find full-time work after six months of unemployment. He finally takes up a three-month contract that entails only six hours of work a week. While the U-3 measure would consider him employed, the U-6 measure would consider his obvious degree of underemployment.
The Bottom Line
While the alternative measures show very similar movements throughout the business cycle, they differ significantly in magnitude from the official unemployment rate. The strict definition of unemployment under the official U-3 measure may result in understating the magnitude of the actual unemployment situation. It is therefore advisable to look beyond the headline (U-3) unemployment number as it may not convey the whole story. The U-6 measure, by being the least restrictive and therefore the highest unemployment rate, may provide a truer picture of the degree of labor underutilization. (For related reading, see: The Cost of Unemployment to the Economy.)