Forex is a real global marketplace, with buyers and sellers from all corners of the globe participating in trillions of dollars of trades each day. The fact that foreign exchange trading has become such a global activity means that macroeconomic events everywhere play a greater role in forex than ever before. Traders don't have to stick to popular currencies anymore, but they are a good place to start. Below, we'll discuss some economic trends and events that will help those who are new to the market to become successful forex traders.
- Macroeconomic statistics, such as inflation, have the greatest impact on forex markets.
- Stock, bond, commodity, and other capital markets also have a strong influence on exchange rates.
- International trade numbers, such as trade deficits and surpluses, play a vital role in forex markets.
- Political news can also be important for forex traders, especially when unexpected outcomes occur.
The Role of Macroeconomics in Forex
The forex market is primarily driven by overarching macroeconomic factors. These factors influence a trader's decisions and ultimately determine the value of a currency at any given point in time. The economic health of a nation's economy is a primary factor in the exchange rate of its currency. Overall economic health can change quickly based on current events and new information. However, most of the best forex traders are highly disciplined and stick to a set of trading rules. Let's take a closer look at some of the factors that influence an economy's standing and drive changes in the value of its currency.
Currency markets are incredibly complex, so no specific set of factors will ever completely determine exchange rates. Expect the unexpected.
Capital Markets and Forex
The global capital markets are perhaps the most visible indicators of an economy's health. It is easy to notice the release of public information in capital markets. There is a steady flow of media coverage and up-to-the-second information on the dealings of corporations, institutions, and government entities. A rally or sell-off of securities originating from one country or another should be a clear signal that the future outlook for that economy has changed.
Similarly, many economies are sector-driven, such as Canada's commodity-based market. The Canadian dollar is heavily correlated with commodities, such as crude oil and metals. A rally in oil prices would likely lead to the appreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to other currencies. Commodity traders, like forex traders, rely heavily on economic data for their trades. In many cases, the same data will have a direct impact on both markets. Trading currency and commodity correlations is a fascinating topic.
The bond markets are similarly critical to what is happening in the forex market since both fixed-income securities and currencies rely heavily on interest rates. Treasury price fluctuations are a factor in the movements of exchange rates, which means that a change in yields will directly affect currency values. Therefore, it is essential to understand bonds, and especially government bonds, to excel as a forex trader.
International Trade and Forex
Another critical factor is the balance of trade between nations. The trade balance serves as a proxy for the relative demand for goods from a country. A nation with products or services that are in high demand internationally will typically see an appreciation of its currency. For example, buyers must convert their money into Australian dollars if they want to purchase goods from Australia. The increased demand for the Australian dollar will put upward pressure on its value.
On the other hand, countries with large trade deficits are net buyers of international goods. More of their currency is sold to purchase the currency of other nations to pay for foreign goods. This type of situation is likely to have a negative impact on the value of an importing country's currency.
Political News and Forex Markets
The political landscape plays a vital role in the overall outlook for a country and, consequently, the perceived value of its currency. Forex traders are constantly monitoring political news and events to anticipate changes in the economic policies of national governments. These can include shifts in government spending and adjustments in regulations imposed on particular sectors or industries. Changes in rules regarding margin or leverage available to traders often have a dramatic impact on markets.
Elections with uncertain outcomes are always significant events for currency markets. Exchange rates often react favorably to wins by pro-growth or fiscally responsible parties. A referendum can also have a substantial impact on exchange rates. A good example is the Brexit vote, which had a dramatic effect on the British pound when the U.K. voted to leave the EU.
The fiscal and monetary policies of any government are the most critical factors in its economic decision making. Central bank decisions that impact interest rates are keenly watched by the forex market for any changes in key rates or the future outlook of policymakers.
Economic Statistics and Forex
Economic reports are the backbone of a forex trader's playbook. Maintaining an economic report calendar is crucial to staying current in this fast-paced marketplace. Gross domestic product (GDP) may be the most visible economic statistic, as it is the baseline of a country's economic performance and strength. GDP measures the total output of goods and services produced within an economy. However, it is crucial to remember that GDP is a lagging indicator. That means it reports on events and trends that have already occurred.
Inflation is also a significant indicator, as it sends a signal of increasing price levels and falling purchasing power. However, inflation is a double-edged sword. Many view it as placing downward pressure on a currency due to retreating purchasing power. Inflation can also lead to currency appreciation, as it may force central bankers to increase rates to curb rising inflation levels. Inflation is a hotly-contested issue among economists, and its effects on currencies are rarely straightforward.
Employment levels, retail sales, manufacturing indexes, and capacity utilization also carry important information on the current and predicted strength of an economy and its currency. They can provide confirmation for the primary factors we've outlined above.
The Bottom Line
The forex market is ultimately driven by economic factors that impact the value and strength of a nation's currency. The economic outlook for a country has the most influence on the value of its currency. Knowing the factors and indicators to watch will help you keep pace in the competitive and fast-moving world of forex.