Markets extended their rally Friday morning on a rise in crude oil prices and hopes of further stimulus. Central bank governors and finance ministers have assembled in Shanghai for the G20 summit, where old rifts are reemerging over the prospect of coordinated economic stimulus.
No Consensus on Stimulus
Much of this week's rally has been driven by Wednesday's release of an IMF paper calling for a coordinated international "demand support," in other words, a stimulus program. (See also: Global Trade in 2015 Worst Since Financial Crisis.)
The paper comes as a collapse in oil and commodity prices sparks worries of an international slump in demand, global equity markets around the world slide, currencies around the world weaken against the dollar, geopolitical tensions rise, political parties in the world's major economies – not least the U.S. – advance platforms of radical policy change, a refugee crisis drives a wedge between European states, Britain threatens to leave the EU, and China risks a "hard landing" after an unprecedented growth spurt.
Given that laundry list of anxieties, there would appear to be a case for stimulus, but world leaders are divided. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said Friday that "talking about further stimulus just distracts from the real tasks at hand." Taro Aso, governor of the Bank of Japan, also resisted the push for more stimulus, after introducing negative interest rates last month.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that China had room to adjust monetary policy, and said the country would "strike a balance between growth, restructuring and risk management."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew stressed China's need to stick to a reform agenda in order to avoid recession and the importance of avoid competitive devaluation of the yuan.
After falling 6.4% Thursday, China's markets have recovered slightly. Shanghai's SSE Composite Index closed up 1.0% Friday to 2,767, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2.5% to 19,364. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is up 0.4% to 16,310.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.5% to 16,748 before market open, while Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.6% to 4,270 and S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% to 1,960. Yields on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year government bonds have edged up.
The U.S. dollar has strengthened 0.1%, while the euro (-0.1%), yen (-0.1%), Canadian dollar (-0.1%), Swiss franc (-0.3%) and Australian dollar (-0.4%) have fallen. The pound sterling is flat, and the New Zealand dollar is up 0.2%. CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index is up 0.3% to $425.
Orange juice futures have risen 3.9% to $130.45, as Florida production is expected to be the lowest since the 1960s.