The Casino Mentality In Trading

Financial markets attract all sorts of participants, from part-time hobbyists looking for extra cash to multinational institutions moving billions of dollars across thousands of instruments. The trading game stretches across both ends of the spectrum, with part-timers and at-home gamers competing for profits with traditional funds and lightning-fast computer algorithms.

Data suggest the majority of traders playing at the shallow end of the market pool will eventually fail at the endeavor and pick up stakes, letting someone else manage their money, or simply giving up and looking for another way to build wealth. Ironically, many of these folks never had a chance to succeed because they came into the game with a casino mentality that marked a direct path to failure.

What exactly is a casino mentality and how does it undermine the trader’s quest for profitability? Is this flawed approach limited to novices or do experienced traders also get caught up in the behavior? What’s the most effective way to overcome the casino mentality and replace it with a disciplined approach that supports a profitable career in speculation?

Key Takeaways

  • Investing and gambling both involve risking capital in the hopes of making a profit.
  • Investing, by definition, is putting your money to work so that it can grow in the future and thus has a positive expected return even though there are risks.
  • Gambling, in contrast, is defined as wagering on games on chance without any skill and has a negative expected return.
  • If you start trading believing the market is a casino, you are likely to make bad "bets" and lose money - but if you trade in a disciplined, objective manner that follows a sound strategy, your investments are likely to pay off over time.

Understanding the Casino Mentality

Many new traders view their participation in the financial markets in the same way as a trip to Las Vegas, hoping the pile of cash in their back pockets can be traded in for a bigger pile when they leave. Many of these folks haven’t learned basic trading strategies and techniques because they are oblivious to the nature of risk, hypnotized by the greed that sticks like glue to all get-rich-quick schemes.

The media and peers have programmed new traders to look at securities as betting sheets and the broad market as a sporting event, in which anyone can win as long as they root for the right side. The game looks black and white from their perspective, because they don’t understand how markets pick the pockets of traders who throw money at securities with the same intensity that coins are dropped into one-arm bandits in hopes of hitting the jackpot.

And just like a slot machine, minor payouts at regular intervals increase the motivation to place bigger bets, whether or not they are appropriate to the market conditions and opportunities in play at the time. This greedy behavior occasionally pays off with a big win but mostly loses money consistently over time, opening the door to failure and a final exit from the trading game.

The lack of a definable edge seals their fate—just like gamblers who play for excitement but fail to learn the odds for each game and appropriate responses that reduce or eliminate the house’s advantage. Meanwhile, both sets of individuals get secondary reinforcement for destructive actions because their bodies release adrenaline and endorphins whenever they play, regardless of winning or losing.

The casino mentality consumes the most capital when markets or instruments head into binary events, like earnings reports or economic releases that trigger sharply higher or lower security prices. Smart traders step aside or hedge positions at these inflection points because they don’t know the outcome and guessing doesn’t constitute a viable strategy. Meanwhile the afflicted trader goes all in, taking large positions because they are fixed on the winning side of the equation, blind to the significant cost of being wrong.

"...something I always say, which is, it's not what you know that matters, meaning about the future. When's the next move up or down the market? It's what you do that matters," said Liz Ann Sonders, managing director & chief investment strategist of Charles Schwab. "And I think that investors often think the key to success is knowing what's going to happen and then positioning accordingly in advance. And that's just gambling on moments in time."

Beginner’s Flaw or Lifetime Affliction?

The casino mentality primarily affects novices because it is a natural consequence of misunderstanding the financial markets and how they function. Many of these folks will learn from their mistakes sooner or later, using the inevitable losses as a wake-up call to take the subject matter more seriously. In turn, this provides the motivation needed to sit down and learn the basics of strategy, position sizing, positive expectancy, and risk management

While novices wash out quickly if they don’t abandon the casino mentality, experienced traders can carry elements of this destructive mindset for years. While it doesn’t dominate their time-tested strategies, this mentality can show up whenever greed overcomes discipline. It isn’t fatal in small doses and may inject a bit of fun into the trading day, as long as position size is kept down. These are appropriately called “lottery tickets,” working best when traders face binary scenarios they’ve seen enough times to believe they have a better than 50-50 chance of being right.

For example, FTSE Russell rebalances their popular index portfolios once a year in June, triggering rallies because fund managers need to buy the new securities. Experienced traders can book windfall profits if they guess the additions in advance. Although a binary event (a security is added or it is not), years of observing this process creates a small edge that traders play with a basket of stocks they think will get added.

Overcoming The Casino Mentality

Education offers the most potent defense against the casino mentality. Start your trading career by reading solid tutorial materials on investing, trading, and the history of the financial markets. Then explore specialized materials in your area of interest, including Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd if focused on fundamental analysis and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee if focused on technical analysis. Read biographies on famous traders and how they made their fortunes, such as Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefèvre‘s 1923 biography of legendary trader Jesse Livermore. Supplement that classic knowledge by fast forwarding into the modern era, studying top trading and market timing books of the last few decades.

Realistically, many new participants avoid the educational path because they are perfectly content chasing the illusion of easy money, looking for the markets to provide big paydays without working up a sweat. Logistically, this works to the advantage of more serious minded participants, generating a large supply of fumbling weak hands that add to reward potential at key market turning points. 

Frequently Asked Questions

Is playing the stock market the same as entering a casino?

If you buy stocks randomly, on a whim, or based on rumors it could be. However, a diversified well-researched portfolio - or even passively investing in a broad stock market index, has a positive expected return and will grow your wealth over time, on average. On the other hand, once you've entered a casino, as the experts say, you're already down money.

How does speculation differ from gambling?

While speculation is highly risky, it does still often have a positive expected return, even though that return may never manifest. Gambling, on the other hand, always involves a negative expected return—the house always has the advantage. Gambling is also very short in time horizon - you place a bet, you spin the wheel. With investments, and even speculative ones, it often takes a longer time horizon to pan out (or not).

 Can trading become an addiction like gambling can?

Trading can be exciting, stimulating, emotional, and engrossing - which can induce reward pathways in the brain. When a day trader takes a profit, or even gets excited about a potential profit, the brain releases “feel good” neurochemicals such as dopamine and serotonin. As such, you can become addicted, just like with casino gambling or using illicit drugs. How dangerous can a trading addiction be? Like any severe addiction, trading addiction can cost you your job, personal relationships, and, of course, your financial resources.

The Bottom Line

Financial markets offer all sorts of opportunities to build profits, as long as participants are willing to cultivate well-defined edges and build appropriate sets of risk and money management rules. Conversely, placing binary bets on market outcomes, believing it’s a casino that pays off in a random manner, ignores market structure and reality, providing a direct path to failure and washout.  

Article Sources
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  1. FTSE Russell. "Russell Reconstruction."

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