Interest rates are typically assumed to be the price paid to borrow money. For example, an annualized 2% interest rate on a $100 loan means that the borrower must repay the initial loan amount plus an additional $2 after one full year. On the other hand, a -2% interest rate means the bank pays the borrower $2 after a year of using the $100 loan, which is counterintuitive. While negative interest rates are a strong incentive to borrow, it is difficult to understand why a lender would be willing to provide funds considering the lender is the one taking the risk of a loan default. While seemingly inconceivable, there may be times when central banks run out of policy options to stimulate the economy and turn to the desperate measure of negative interest rates.
- Negative interest rates are an unconventional monetary policy tool.
- Negative interest rates are a drastic measure revealing that policymakers fear that Europe is at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral.
Negative Interest Rates in Theory and Practice
Negative interest rates are an unconventional monetary policy tool. They were first deployed by Sweden's central bank in July 2009 when the bank cut its overnight deposit rate to -0.25%. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed in June 2014 when it lowered its deposit rate to -0.1%. Other European countries and Japan have since chosen negative interest rates resulting in $9.5 trillion worth of government debt carrying negative yields in 2017, according to Fitch.
Negative interest rates are a drastic measure that shows that policymakers are afraid that Europe is at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In harsh economic times, people and businesses tend to hold on to their cash while they wait for the economy to improve. But this behavior can weaken the economy further, as a lack of spending causes further job losses, lowers profits, and reinforces people’s fears, giving them even more incentive to hoard.
As spending slows, prices drop creating another incentive for people to wait as prices fall further.
This is precisely the deflationary spiral that European policymakers are trying to avoid with negative interest rates. By charging European banks to hold reserves at the central bank, they hope to encourage banks to lend more.
In theory, banks would rather lend money to borrowers and earn at least some interest as opposed to being charged to hold their money at a central bank. Additionally, negative rates charged by a central bank may carry over to deposit accounts and loans. This means that deposit holders would also be charged for parking their money at their local bank while some borrowers enjoy the privilege of actually earning money by taking out a loan.
Another primary reason the ECB has turned to negative interest rates is to lower the value of the euro. Low or negative yields on European debt will deter foreign investors weakening demand for the euro. While this decreases the supply of financial capital, Europe's problem is not one of supply but of demand. A weaker euro should stimulate demand for exports and, hopefully, encourage businesses to expand.
In theory, negative interest rates should help to stimulate economic activity and stave off inflation, but policymakers remain cautious because there are several ways such a policy could backfire. Because banks have certain assets such as mortgages that, by contract, are tied to the interest rate, such negative rates could squeeze profit margins to the point where banks are actually willing to lend less.
There is also nothing to stop deposit holders from withdrawing their money and stuffing the physical cash in mattresses. While the initial threat would be a run on banks, the drain of cash from the banking system could lead to a rise in interest rates—the exact opposite of what negative interest rates are supposed to achieve.
The Bottom Line
While negative interest rates may seem paradoxical, this apparent intuition has not prevented a number of European central banks from adopting them. This is evidence of the dire situation that policymakers believe is characteristic of the European economy. When the Eurozone inflation rate dropped into deflationary territory at -0.6% in February 2015, European policymakers promised to do whatever it took to avoid a deflationary spiral. However, even as Europe entered unchartered monetary territory, a number of analysts warned that negative interest rate policies could have severe unintended consequences.