Japan has experienced a period of deflation and low economic growth since its economic bubble burst in the early 1990s. The second Abe administration, which took office in 2012, used the three pillars of "Abenomics" to try to revive the economy. The three pillars are aggressive monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy, and a strategy for growth. Despite these efforts, Japan still faces economic challenges.
- Japan has experienced a period of deflation and low economic growth since its economic bubble burst in the early 1990s.
- The second Abe administration, which took office in 2012, has attempted to use aggressive monetary policy and a flexible fiscal policy as a strategy to revive economic growth.
- Despite these efforts, Japan still faces economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 epidemic.
- The epidemic has affected Japanese manufacturing and has caused exports and tourism to dwindle.
Three structural challenges that Japan currently faces have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 epidemic, which is causing the worst recession since the end of the Second World War. This article examines three of Japan's immediate economic concerns: the pandemic, sales tax, and dwindling exports.
The Coronavirus Pandemic
Japan was preparing to host the 2020 Olympics, which would have been an economic boost, but then the Cornonavirus hit, and the decision was made to postpone the Olympics to the summer of 2021. As the coronavirus spread, Japan’s economy was on the brink of a recession because of a slump in Chinese demand for Japanese exports and reduced consumer spending.
While Japan has lifted the state of emergency in 39 out of its 47 prefectures, as of May 2020, the economic outlook remained gloomy. Reuters' analysts expected the country's economy to shrink 5.6% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2021.
A $1 trillion stimulus package was instituted by the Japanese government and, in April, the Bank of Japan expanded its stimulus measures for the second straight month. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has continued to fund spending initiatives to mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic.
Sales Tax Hike
In addition to the pandemic, consumers in Japan were also subjected to a sales tax hike from 8% to 10% in Oct. 2019. The government increased the sales tax to fund social welfare programs including pre-school education and to pay down the nation's massive public debt load.
Of course, higher sales taxes cause people to spend less. So, to mitigate the negative effects on spending, the government introduced measures, including rebates for certain purchases made using electronic payments. Consumers were eligible for a 5% rebate on purchases made using electronic payments at some smaller retailers, negating the 2% tax rise. The government also hoped that the rebates would encourage electronic payments and lessen the nation's reliance on cash.
Japan has been experiencing less global demand for its exports. For example, electronic equipment and car parts. Japan relies heavily on exporting and many of its biggest brands, such as Toyota and Honda, have seen global sales slump. Global consumer demand has been severely impacted by coronavirus lockdowns worldwide.
Japanese manufacturers are falling behind because they rely on foreign demand. According to Deloitte Insights, exports and manufacturing production are highly correlated in Japan. "In May, manufactured goods exports fell 23.8% from a year earlier, while manufacturing production was down 25.9% over the same period," said Deloitte. Unfortunately, the pickup in global demand that Japanese manufacturers so desperately need seems unlikely any time soon.
Tourism is a large part of the Japanese economy, but this industry has also been hit hard as the pandemic keeps foreign visitors away.
The outlook for Japanese international trade is influenced by a wave of protectionism that risks lowering global trade volumes. There are also heightened geopolitical tensions that further threaten Japanese exports and foreign direct investments.
The Outlook for Japan
As is the case for most countries' economies, the global pandemic means that the outlook is bleak for the Japanese economy in the short term. There is also increasing tension between Japan and China over disputed islands in the East China Sea where the previous conflict over the islands resulted in anti-Japanese protests and boycotts.
However, despite tensions with China and the fact of being the first of the world's top three economies to officially fall into recession, the country actually appears to be doing better than other major economies.
Overall, Japan’s policymakers have provided ample fiscal and monetary stimulus to cushion the fall in demand and support the economy during the worst times of the pandemic. However, consumer spending will remain low as the risks from the pandemic linger. Manufacturers will continue to struggle with weak global demand, a strong currency, and geopolitical risks. Japan’s economy should improve from here, but growth is likely to be slow.