Risk tolerance is a topic that is often discussed but rarely defined. It is not unusual to read a trade recommendation discussing alternatives or options based on different risk tolerances. But how does an individual investor determine their risk tolerance? How can understanding this concept help investors in diversifying their portfolios?
- Investors that are able to understand and calculate their risk tolerance and design a portfolio that reflects that tolerance benefit in the long run.
- Risk tolerance is often seen as reflecting age, with younger people with a longer time horizon seen as more risk-tolerant, and therefore more likely to invest in stocks and stock funds than fixed income.
- While age is a factor, don't automatically switch from stocks to bonds just because you've turned 65; people are living longer and can remain aggressive investors for longer as well.
- Regardless of age, those with a higher net worth and more so-called liquid capital to spend can afford to have greater risk tolerance than those who are more cash-strapped.
- Other factors to consider in assessing risk tolerance include determining your priorities in terms of what you're saving and investing money for and being realistic about your investment experience.
Risk Tolerance by Time Frame
An often seen cliché is that of what we'll refer to as "age-based" risk tolerance. It is conventional wisdom that a younger investor has a long-term time horizon in terms of the need for investments and can take more risk. Following this logic, an older individual has a short investment horizon, especially once that individual is retired, and would have lower risk tolerance. While this may be true in general, there are certainly a number of other considerations that come into play.
First, we need to consider the investment. When will funds be needed? If the time horizon is relatively short, risk tolerance should shift to be more conservative. For long-term investments, there is room for more aggressive investing.
Be careful, however, about blindly following conventional wisdom when it comes to risk tolerance and asset classes. For example, don't think just because you are 65 that you must shift everything to conservative investments, such as certificates of deposit or Treasury bills. While this may be appropriate for some, it may not be appropriate for all—such as for an individual who has enough to retire and live off of the interest of their investments without touching the principal. With today's growing life expectancies and advancing medical science, the 65-year-old investor may still have a 20-year (or more) time horizon.
Net worth and available risk capital should be important considerations when determining risk tolerance. Net worth is simply your assets minus your liabilities. Risk capital is money available to invest or trade that will not affect your lifestyle if lost. It should be defined as liquid capital or capital that can easily be converted into cash.
Therefore, an investor or trader with a high net worth can assume more risk. The smaller the percentage of your overall net worth the investment or trade makes up, the more aggressive the risk tolerance can be.
Unfortunately, those with little to no net worth or with limited risk capital are often drawn to riskier investments like futures or options because of the lure of quick, easy, and large profits. The problem with this is that when you are "trading with the rent," it is difficult to have your head in the game. Also, when too much risk is assumed with too little capital, a trader can be forced out of a position too early.
On the other hand, if an undercapitalized trader using limited or defined risk instruments (such as long options) "goes bust," it may not take that trader long to recover. Contrast this with the high-net-worth trader who puts everything into one risky trade and loses—it will take this trader much longer to recover.
A high-net-worth individual likely has more money to risk and can, therefore, be more risk-tolerant than someone with less capital, but that person also has more to lose should the investment go bust.
Understand Your Investment Goals
Your investment objectives must also be considered when calculating how much risk can be assumed. If you are saving for a child's college education or your retirement, how much risk do you really want to take with those funds? Conversely, more risk could be taken if you are using true risk capital or disposable income to attempt to earn extra income.
Interestingly, some people seem quite alright with using retirement funds to trade higher-risk instruments. If you are doing this for the sole purpose of sheltering the trades from tax exposure, such as trading futures in an IRA, make sure you fully understand what you are doing. Such a strategy may be alright if you are experienced with trading futures, are using only a portion of your IRA funds for this purpose, and are not risking your ability to retire on a single trade.
However, if you are applying your entire IRA to futures, have little or no net worth, and are just trying to avoid tax exposure for that "sure thing" trade, you need to rethink the notion of taking on this much risk. Futures already receive favorable capital gains treatment; capital gains rates are lower than for regular income, and 60% of your gains in futures will be charged the lower of the two capital gains rates.
With this in mind, why would a low-net-worth individual need to take that much risk with retirement funds? In other words, just because you can do something doesn't always mean you should.
Just because you can make riskier bets doesn't mean you should; if preservation of capital is the goal and you are newer to investing, be wary of taking on too much risk.
When it comes to determining your risk tolerance, your level of investing experience must also be considered. Are you new to investing and trading? Have you been doing this for some time but are branching into a new area, like selling options? It is prudent to begin new ventures with some degree of caution, and trading or investing is no different.
Get some experience under your belt before committing too much capital. Always remember the old cliché and strive for "preservation of capital." It only makes sense to take on the appropriate risk for your situation if the worst-case scenario will leave you able to live to fight another day.
There are many things to consider when determining the answer to a seemingly simple question, "What is my risk tolerance?" The answer will vary based on your age, experience, net worth, risk capital, and the actual investment or trade being considered. Once you have thought this through, you will be able to apply this knowledge to a balanced and diversified program of investing and trading.
Spreading your risk around, even if it is all high risk, decreases your overall exposure to any single investment or trade. With appropriate diversification, the probability of total loss is greatly reduced. This comes back to the preservation of capital.
Knowing your risk tolerance goes far beyond being able to sleep at night or stressing over your trades. It is a complex process of analyzing your personal financial situation and balancing it against your goals and objectives. Ultimately, knowing your risk tolerance—and keeping to investments that fit within it—should prevent you from complete financial ruin.