In the late 1950s, George Lane developed stochastics, an indicator that measures the relationship between an issue's closing price and its price range over a predetermined period of time. To this day, stochastics is a favored technical indicator because it is easy to understand and has a high degree of accuracy in indicating whether it's time to buy or sell a security.
- Stochastics are a favored technical indicator because it is easy to understand and has a high degree of accuracy.
- Stochastics are used to show when a stock has moved into an overbought or oversold position.
- it can be beneficial to use stochastics in conjunction with and an oscillator like the relative strength index (RSI) together.
The premise of stochastics is that when a stock trends upwards, its closing price tends to trade at the high end of the day's range or price action. Price action refers to the range of prices at which a stock trades throughout the daily session. For example, if a stock opened at $10, traded as low as $9.75 and as high as $10.75, then closed at $10.50 for the day, the price action or range would be between $9.75 (the low of the day) and $10.75 (the high of the day). Conversely, if the price has a downward movement, the closing price tends to trade at or near the low range of the day's trading session.
Stochastics is used to show when a stock has moved into an overbought or oversold position. Fourteen is the mathematical number most often used in the time mode. Depending on the technician's goal, it can represent days, weeks, or months. The chartist may want to examine an entire sector. For a long-term view of a sector, the chartist would start by looking at 14 months of the entire industry's trading range.
Relative Strength Index
Jack D. Schwager, a board member of Fund Seeder and author of several books on technical analysis, uses the term "normalized" to describe stochastic oscillators that have predetermined boundaries, both on the high and low sides. An example of such an oscillator is the relative strength index (RSI)—a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis—which has a range of 0 to 100. It is usually set at either the 20 to 80 range or the 30 to 70 range. Whether you're looking at a sector or an individual issue, it can be very beneficial to use stochastics and the RSI in conjunction with each other.
Stochastics: An Accurate Buy And Sell Indicator
Stochastics is measured with the K line and the D line. But it is the D line that we follow closely, for it will indicate any major signals in the chart. Mathematically, the K line looks like this:
%K=100×H14−L14CP−L14where:CP=Most recent closing priceL14=Lowest price of the 14 previous trading sessionsH14=Highest price of the same 14 previous trading
The formula for the more important D line looks like this:
D=100(L3H3)where:H3=Highest of the three previous trading sessionsL3=Lowest price traded during the same three-day
We show you these formulas for interest's sake only. Today's charting software does all the calculations, making the whole technical analysis process so much easier, and thus, more exciting for the average investor.
Reading the Chart
The K line is faster than the D line; the D line is the slower of the two. The investor needs to watch as the D line and the price of the issue begin to change and move into either the overbought (over the 80 line) or the oversold (under the 20 line) positions. The investor needs to consider selling the stock when the indicator moves above the 80 levels. Conversely, the investor needs to consider buying an issue that is below the 20 line and is starting to move up with increased volume.
Over the years, many articles have explored "tweaking" this indicator. But new investors should concentrate on the basics of stochastics.
In the chart of eBay above, a number of clear buying opportunities presented themselves over the spring and summer months of 2001. There are also a number of sell indicators that would have drawn the attention of short-term traders. The strong buy signal in early April would have given both investors and traders a great 12-day run, ranging from the mid $30 area to the mid $50 area.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock is also commonly used as an example for these measurements.
The Bottom Line
Stochastics is a favorite technical indicator because of the accuracy of its findings. It is easily perceived both by seasoned veterans and new technicians, and it tends to help all investors make a good entry and exit decisions on their holdings.