A gain of 56.57% in 2019 for shares of Facebook, Inc. (FB) tells a story of big buy demand for the shares. This buying is quite recent, and as the social media company keeps making big profits, shareholders could be rewarded handsomely. We believe that the rush for this stock is happening now.
A great way to uncover tomorrow's winners is to look for great stocks seeing big buy activity, and Facebook could be just the opportunity. Smart money managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks … the best in class. For Mapsignals, it's not enough to look at technicals and fundamentals alone. The key lies in the demand for shares … the big money.
I'll go into the fundamental picture later, but the true tell on the near-term trajectory of a stock lies in its trading activity. Simply put, it's all about supply and demand. When demand is higher than supply, the stock rises. When demand is lower than supply, stocks fall. For the back half of 2019, Facebook stock has seen relentless demand – i.e., big buying. As the company demonstrates more and more engagement on its platforms, the focus looks to be on the next leg higher for the stock.
For Mapsignals, when we look for an entry on a leading stock, we look for big money signals. Just to show you what our big money activity signals look like, have a look at all of the big money (unusual institutional) signals Facebook stock has made over the past year. Focusing on 2019, you can see a lot of buy signals (green) throughout the back half of the year. What's happening now is big buying rushing in:
Since November, Facebook has logged 12 big money buy signals, indicative of buying in the shares (see chart above). This shows that traders are likely thinking the shares are poised to head higher. These data points suggest that big money appetite for the stock is high.
If you are going to make a bet on the direction of a stock, it is prudent to pay attention to how the shares are trading. Based on history, the odds suggest that Facebook stock is poised for gains. The big money is always looking for an opportunity to buy shares on the cheap. It's all about playing the odds by not fighting the trend.
Mapsignals' goal is to identify tomorrow’s top stocks today. We're basically looking for outlier companies with healthy fundamentals accompanied by big money signals (outsized institutional activity). We are looking for the big money bets because big money moves stocks. By studying these data points, we can make an educated guess as to which stocks institutions are trafficking in and marry this information with fundamentally sound companies. We want the odds on our side when looking for the highest-quality stocks.
When we decide on a long candidate, we consider leaders that have a history of technical outperformance. When they show leadership, we see these as opportunities. Below are a few areas in which Facebook stock has grabbed our attention:
- Three-month outperformance vs. market: +8.39% vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Three-month outperformance vs. technology ETF: +2.87% vs. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
- Recent big money buy signals
Now, we take it a step further and score the best stocks showing big money trading activity. Below, you can see that Facebook has a rich history of posting buy signals for Mapsignals since 2019. The main takeaway is how the buy signals tend to keep showing up. We think a new round of buy signals could be upon us soon:
On top of a long-term technical picture that is strong, one should also look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, Facebook's earnings growth is very strong, and its revenue growth rate is impressive. We think the social media ramp will cause the revenue growth rate to stay elevated:
- Three-year revenue growth rate: +46.2%
- Three-year earnings growth rate: +88.44%
Facebook shares are breaking out as the market breaks to new highs. The company is quietly gaining with demand for its shares. We like the long-term story of the stock. The narrative for Facebook is that engagement is growing and profits keep falling to the bottom line.
We are always on the lookout for great companies pressing higher year after year. The best companies in a group tend to outperform over the long run. Top social media stocks have been a strong group in recent years. All of this points to a long-term opportunity for Facebook stock.
The Bottom Line
Facebook stock is breaking out with buying pressure. Our big money indicator is signaling that we should take notice. Shares could be positioned for more upside. Given the historical growth in share price and growing fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.
Disclosure: The author holds no position in Facebook shares at the time of publication.