When the economy heads toward a recession, it's natural for investors to worry about falling stock prices and the impact on their portfolios. At the same time, you may hear reports of dropping housing starts, increased jobless claims, and shrinking economic output. But what do house building and shrinking output have to do with your portfolio? And, aside from all of these risks, how does a recession affect you as an investor?
As you'll see in this article, these symptoms are part of a larger picture, which determines the strength of the economy and indicates whether we are in a period of recession or expansion. To understand the state of the economy at a given time and how this affects the stock market, we need to start with the business cycle. Generally, the business cycle is made up of four different periods of activity, each of which can last for months or years.
- In order to understand the state of the economy and how recessions impact investors, we need to start with the business cycle.
- The business cycle refers to the fluctuations in economic activity that an economy experiences over a period.
- At the peak of the business cycle, the economy is healthy and growing; stock prices for companies often reach all-time highs.
- During the recession phase of the business cycle, income and employment decline; stock prices fall as companies struggle to sustain profitability.
- A sign that the economy has entered the trough phase of the business cycle is when stock prices increase after a significant decline.
Stage 1: Peak
At its peak, the economy is running at full steam. Employment is at or near maximum levels, real gross domestic product (GDP) is growing at a healthy rate, and incomes are rising. All this positive economic activity is reflected in stock prices, with share prices for many companies and industries rising to all-time highs. To show their gratitude to shareholders for their continued support and investment, companies may increase dividend payouts.
Less encouragingly, prices tend to be rising due to inflation. Even so, most businesses, workers, and investors are enjoying the boom times.
Stage 2: Recession
The adage "what goes up must come down" applies perfectly here. After experiencing a great deal of growth and success, income and employment begin to decline due to any number of causes. It could be an external event that triggers the downturn, such as an invasion or a supply shock, a sudden correction in overheated asset prices, or a drop in consumer spending due to inflation, which in turn can lead firms to lay off employees.
During a recession, stock prices typically plummet. The markets can be volatile with share prices experiencing wild swings. Investors react quickly to any hint of news—either good or bad—and the flight to safety can cause some investors to pull their money out of the stock market entirely.
Because the wages companies pay workers and the prices they charge consumers are "inelastic," or initially resistant to change, cutting payrolls is a common response. Rising unemployment pushes consumer spending down even further, setting off a vicious cycle of economic contraction. A recession is generally defined as two or more consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as any period of "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months" and uses a variety of factors including GDP, employment, retail sales, and industrial production to make that determination.
Stage 3: Trough
The trough is the part of the business cycle when output and employment bottom out before they begin to rise again. At this point, spending and investment have cooled down significantly, pushing down prices and wages.
Troughs can be challenging to pinpoint while they are happening, but they are recognizable in hindsight. Troughs are the point where business activity moves from contraction to recovery. A sign that the trough has occurred—or is about to occur—is when stock prices begin to rally after a significant decline. This rebalancing of the economy makes new purchases attractive to consumers and new investments—in labor and assets—attractive to firms.
Stage 4: Recovery and Expansion
During a recovery or "expansion," the economy begins to grow again. As consumers spend more, firms increase their production, leading them to hire more workers. Competition for labor emerges, pushing up wages and putting more money in the pockets of workers and consumers. That allows firms to charge more for products, sparking inflation that starts low and slow but may eventually bring growth to a halt and start the cycle over again if it rises too high. Over the long-term, however, most economies tend to grow, with each peak reaching a higher high than the last.
How Does the Business Cycle Impact Investors?
Understanding the business cycle doesn't matter much unless it improves portfolio returns. What's an investor to do during a recession? The answer depends on your situation and what type of investor you are.
First, remember that a bear market does not mean there's no way to make money. Some investors take advantage of falling markets by short selling stocks, meaning they make money when share prices fall and lose money when they rise. Only sophisticated investors should use this technique, however, due to its unique pitfalls. The most important of these is that losses from short selling are theoretically unlimited since there is no obvious limit to how far a stock's value can rise.
Another breed of investor treats a recession like a sale at the local department store. This technique, known as value investing, looks at a declining share price as a bargain waiting to be scooped up. Betting that better times will eventually return to the economy, value investors take advantage of bear markets to pick up high-quality companies on the cheap.
There is yet another type of investor who barely flinches during a recession. A follower of the long-term, buy-and-hold strategy knows that short-term problems will barely be a blip on the chart over a 20- to 30-year horizon.
Another Approach for Investors
Of course, few of us have the luxury of looking decades down the line, or the iron stomach required to do nothing in the face of huge paper losses. Value investing is not for everyone either, as it requires extensive research, while short-selling requires even tougher discipline than buying and holding. The key is to understand your situation and pick a style that works for you.
For example, if you are close to retirement, the long-term approach definitely is not for you. Instead of living at the whim of the stock market, consider diversifying into other assets such as treasury securities, money market funds, and certificates of deposit (CDs).
The Bottom Line: The Business Cycle Isn't Perfect
The business cycle model is, of course, oversimplified. Economies sometimes experience double-dip recessions, for example, in which another recession follows a short recovery. Nor do all economies enjoy a positive long-term growth path. The relationships among spending, prices, wages, and production described above are also too simple. Governments often have a large influence at all stages of the cycle. Excessive taxation, regulation, or money-printing can spark a recession, while fiscal and monetary stimulus can turn a shrinking economy around when the supposedly natural tendency to rebalance fails to materialize.
Reading the headlines during a recession can convince you the sky is falling. But understanding the business cycle can help you realize that downturns are a normal part of a functioning economy. When the economy begins to show signs of a recession, it's important to develop a strategy for dealing with risks based on your financial situation.