A key indicator suggests there may be major turmoil ahead for Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, which has staged a rally of about 112% year to date. The GTI Vera Convergence-Divergence indicator, detecting both positive and negative trends, has flashed a sell signal for the first time in about two months, pointing to further downside in the near future as the massive Bitcoin rally slows, per a detailed report by Bloomberg. The warning sign comes as Bitcoin's volatility in recent weeks has reached the highest levels since December, when the currency hit a low.
Bitcoin's Wild Ride
- (YTD) +112.6%
- (1 Month) +35.0%
- (7 Days) -5.52%
Source: coinmarketcap.com; as of June 7, 11:43 am
More Trouble Ahead?
In May, Bitcoin rallied by about 62%, marking the largest monthly gain since the highest point of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2017, per Bloomberg. Now, though, the top digital currency by market cap is showing cracks. Already, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 5% in the past week, dipping below $8,000 on Tuesday for the first time this month.
The GTI indicator suggests to some analysts that the cryptocurrency market is far from stable. "The market is in an identity crisis, trying to find a place to stabilize," Jake Stolarski, senior trader for Greenwich-based Cipher Technologies, told the publication. He added, "The key technical levels have been creating market volatility, for sure, due to sudden shifts in sentiment."
Bitcoin's price has not been able to stabilize despite momentum gained by greater mainstream acceptance of digital currencies by big banks, asset management firms and technology companies. "People are trying to find a stabilizing point where they can layer into a core position," said Stolarski.
What It Means
If the GTI indicator is correct and Bitcoin continues to fall, it will mean that traders who have bet that the cryptocurrency could spike to $50,000 will have drastically miscalculated. Crypto mega-bulls saw the surge in Bitcoin prices throughout the first half of 2019 as a sign that the currency was making a comeback. LedgerX, a New York Bitcoin derivative marketplace, reported that an unidentified trader purchased options for Bitcoin at a $50,000 price tag each, valid between May 23 and June of 2020, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Such a gambit may have overestimated the mainstream appeal of cryptocurrencies. Kim Grauer, senior economist at Chainalysis, pointed to the fact that "bitcoin economic activity continues to be dominated by exchange trading" as a sign that "bitcoin's top use case remains speculative," according to a recent Investopedia story.
Bitcoin's tumble may coincide with another bit of disappointment for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. On June 19, the last Bitcoin futures contract on Cboe Global Markets Inc. will settle, per another report by Bloomberg. Cboe's Bitcoin futures were hailed as a revolutionary financial product when they launched a year and a half ago. Now, Cboe says it "is assessing its approach with respect to how it plans to continue to offer digital asset derivatives for trading, but we have nothing new to announce at this time," the exchange said.