Moderna to Report First Quarterly Loss Since Debuting Covid-19 Vaccine

By
Kevin George
Kevin George
Full Bio
Kevin George is a freelance crypto writer and editor for Investopedia. He holds a master's degree in finance and has extensive knowledge and experience in the area of trading, markets, and economics.
Learn about our editorial policies
Published May 02, 2023
Close-up of two bottles of Moderna's Spikevax Covid-19 vaccine on a table inside a mobile vaccine station.

Thomas Lohnes / Getty Images

Moderna (MRNA), the Massachusetts-based company whose 2019 IPO was the largest-ever for a biotech firm, likely will report its first quarterly loss in two years as demand for Covid-19 vaccines, its only marketable product, dries up.

Key Takeaways

  • Moderna is expected to swing to a loss of $1.64 per share from a net income of $8.58 a share a year ago.
  • Vaccine revenue is expected to decline more than 80% to about $1 billion.
  • The company is hopeful that its pipeline will yield strong results by 2027.

Moderna is expected to report a net loss of $648 million, or $1.64 per share, compared with net income of $3.66 billion, or $8.58 a share, in the year-ago quarter, according to analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Revenue is expected to fall 80% to $1.2 billion. Moderna reports first-quarter earnings before markets open Thursday.

Investors will be looking to see what is coming next from the company as demand for Covid-19 vaccines moderates.  

“We don’t believe that Moderna or the mRNA platform we are building is a one-trick pony,” CFO James Mock told the Financial Times. “It’s not just a respiratory vaccine business. It’s a latent vaccine business. It’s a personalized cancer vaccine business. It’s a rare disease business.”

Developing those drugs will be expensive. Analysts expect Moderna to report more than $1 billion in research costs in the first quarter, almost double what it spent in the same quarter a year ago.

According to Mock, Moderna is sitting on $18 billion in capital for development costs. It expects to spend between $6 billion and $8 billion of that over the next few years developing influenza, Covid-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines. These jabs, the focus of Moderna's annual Vaccines Day in April, are expected to generate between $8 billion and $15 billion in annual revenue by 2027.

Moderna shares have fallen about 25% since the beginning of the year, underperforming both the S&P 500 (up 9%) and the S&P 500 Health Care Sector (down 1%).

Year to date total return of Moderna stock, the S&P 500, and the S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index (as of May 2, 2023).

The Key Metric

The key metric for Moderna will continue to be Covid-19 vaccine revenue, which has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2021. The company posted $6.93 billion in vaccine revenue in that quarter, compared with a forecast of $1 billion in the most recent quarter. 

Moderna Key Metrics
  Q1 2023 (est.)   Q1 2022  Q1 2021
 Earnings per share ($)  -1.64  8.58  2.84
 Revenue ($B)  1.2  6.1  2
Covid-19 vaccine revenue ($B) 1 5.9 1.7
Source: Visible Alpha
Article Sources
Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.

  1. Visible Alpha. "Financial Data."

  2. The Financial Times. "Moderna tries to show it’s not a ‘one trick pony’."

  3. Moderna. "Moderna Announces Clinical and Program Updates at 4th Vaccines Day."

Take the Next Step to Invest
×
The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace.
Service
Name
Description