Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimate EPS of $6.46 vs. -$0.31 in Q2 FY 2020.
  • Revenue is expected to skyrocket on soaring demand for its COVID-19 vaccine.
  • The spread of the Delta variant is raising debates over the need for booster shots, fueling already high demand for vaccines.

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is coming off its first profitable quarter earlier this year and is set to improve on those results as demand for its COVID-19 vaccine continues to soar. The company's vaccine, which uses mRNA technology, was approved for emergency use in the U.S. late last year. Rising concerns over the faster-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus continue to fuel that demand, as governments around the world look to secure supplies for possible booster shots.

Investors will be focusing on how the demand for Moderna's vaccine has boosted both its top and bottom lines when it reports earnings on August 5, 2021 for Q2 fiscal year (FY) 2021. Analysts expect Moderna to report its second straight quarter of positive earnings per share (EPS) and revenue to rise at a meteoric pace.

Investors will also be looking for any announcements regarding how Moderna plans to meet the soaring demand for its vaccine. In just the past month, the company has announced new supply agreements to deliver an additional 35 million doses to Taiwan and 20 million doses to Argentina, as well as a partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. (TAK) and the Japanese government to supply an additional 50 million doses to Japan.

Shares of Moderna have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. The stock had been lagging the market until around mid-November 2020. But then it began to take off not long after reporting an efficacy rate of 94.5% for its COVID-19 vaccine on Nov. 16, 2020. The stock's outperformance gap has especially widened over the last two months. Moderna's shares have provided a total return of 344.7% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 33.2%.

One Year Total Return for S&P 500 and Moderna
Source: TradingView.

Moderna Earnings History

Moderna reported mixed results in Q1 FY 2021, posting EPS that significantly beat analysts' expectations while falling short of their estimates for revenue, which came in at $1.9 billion compared to $8.4 million in the year-ago quarter. To cap off the company's first-ever profitable quarter and big boost to the top line, Moderna announced that it raised its 2021 supply forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine to between 800 million and 1 billion doses.

In Q4 FY 2020, Moderna's EPS missed forecasts while revenue came in above expectations. The company reported another loss per share and its biggest year-over-year (YOY) loss in at least three years. Revenue, however, soared to $570.7 million from $14.1 million in the year-ago quarter. Moderna said that it began to recognize revenue for its COVID-19 vaccine in December after the vaccine received Emergency Use Authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Analysts expect Moderna's strong financial performance to continue in Q2 FY 2021. The company is expected to post its second quarter of profitability, with EPS predicted to more than double from the $2.84 generated in Q1. Revenue, meanwhile, is expected to continue its meteoric rise, ripping past the $4-billion mark.

For full-year FY 2021, analysts expect the company to achieve its first profitable year as revenue expands to approximately $18.4 billion compared to $803.4 million in FY 2020.

Moderna Key Stats
  Estimate for Q2 2021 (FY) Q2 2020 (FY) Q2 2019 (FY)
Earnings Per Share ($) 6.46 -0.31 -0.41
Revenue ($M) 4,357.2 66.4 13.1

Source: Visible Alpha

Continued vaccine demand is key to Moderna's revenue and profit growth. The potential need for booster shots is already bolstering that demand. But other developments could also create upward pressure on demand, such as full approval of the vaccine. Currently, Moderna's vaccine is only approved for emergency use, although the company has filed initial paperwork for full approval.

Obtaining full approval would ease restrictions on the distribution and advertising of the vaccine. It would also make it easier for states and various entities such as schools and businesses to introduce vaccine mandates. Such developments would further boost demand for the vaccine.