Moderna Q2 FY2022 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has seen its revenue soar from almost nothing a few years ago to $6.1 billion in the latest quarter amid strong global demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. In the latest big order, Moderna agreed to supply the U.S. government with 66 million doses of its COVID-19 booster vaccine with an option to purchase up to an additional 234 million doses. But despite this, Moderna is facing major challenges as demand slows for its vaccines amid falling COVID-19 cases in many nations globally.

Investors will be watching closely to see whether Moderna can maintain its rapid growth when the company reports earnings before the market on Aug. 3, 2022, for Q2 FY 2022. For Q2, analysts estimate that Moderna will report a sharp decline in earnings per share (EPS), while revenue also drops.

Moderna's vaccine started being marketed in the U.S. as Spikevax following its winning of initial full approval for use in individuals 18 years of age and older by the FDA in late January 2022. The vaccine, which is administered as a two-dose series, had been available under the FDA's EUA designation since December 2020. In late March 2022, the FDA approved a second booster dose of the vaccine for adults 50 years of age and older and for certain immunocompromised individuals. Since then, Moderna has won authorization from a growing number of nations for use of the vaccine, as well as use across an increasing number of different age groups.

Despite the company's rapid growth, Moderna's stock has dramatically underperformed the broader market in the past year. The stock initially led the market between early August and early October 2021. The stock then pulled back, followed by a rally to the end of November, and then a steep decline through the first week of March 2022. Since then, the stock has traded essentially sideways in a wide band. During the past 12 months, Moderna stock has posted a total return of -53.4%, dramatically behind the -6.6% return of the S&P 500 as of Aug. 2, 2022.

Moderna's Earnings History

Moderna reported Q1 FY 2022 earnings that crushed analysts’ expectations. The company reported its fifth straight quarter of positive EPS after a long string of losses per share. Revenue rose 213.2%, driven largely by sales of Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine. The company said in its quarterly report that it saw continuing growth for its vaccine, though at a slower pace.

In its Q4 FY 2021 earnings report, Moderna beat analysts' expectations. The company managed to achieve its first annual profit ever. Revenue rose nearly 13-fold compared to the year-ago quarter, the highest ever. Moderna said that it delivered 807 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine for all of 2021. Its board of directors approved a new share repurchase program.

Analysts expect growth to reverse in Q2 FY 2022. EPS is expected to decline 29.6% YOY, making it the first decline since it began its string of profits in Q1 FY 2021. Revenue is also expected to decline 7.8% compared to the year-ago quarter.

As mentioned, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is seeing broadening use. On July 17, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave emergency use authorization (EUA) to Moderna's vaccine for children as young as 6 months. The FDA amended its EUA to include use of the Moderna's vaccine for ages 6 months through 17 years. Until then, the vaccine had been authorized for use in adults 18 years of age and older.

Also, in mid-July Canadian and Australian regulators gave Moderna's vaccine full or provisional approval, respectively, for use of its vaccine on children from 6 months to 5 years. Moderna recently submitted a variation to the conditional marketing authorization (CMA) with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its vaccine to include children 6 months to under six years of age in the European Union (EU).

Investors should look to Moderna's earnings press releases to see if they've secured any new supply agreements with other nations beyond the U.S. government. Vaccines are handled as large national-level contracts. Unlike some other covid-19 vaccine manufacturers, with more diversified portfolios, Moderna's covid-19 vaccine is its first and only marketed product. However, the company has other drugs and clinical trials which use its mRNA technology.