Moderna Q3 FY2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimate adjusted EPS of $9.54 vs. -$0.53 in Q3 FY 2020.
  • Revenue is expected to skyrocket on soaring demand for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine.
  • The FDA said it needs more time to assess the company's vaccine EUA for use by adolescents.

Moderna Inc. (MRNA), fueled by skyrocketing revenue and sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, is on pace to achieve its first profitable year ever. Demand for the vaccine is likely to continue to boost the company's earnings and revenue as it develops other mRNA-based medicines. In the latest of many agreements to supply its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna recently announced a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) to supply up to 110 million doses to the African Union by the first half of 2022.

Investors will be watching to see if Moderna can maintain its torrid financial growth when the company reports earnings on Nov. 4, 2021 for Q3 FY 2021. Analysts expect the company to report a third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted earnings per share (EPS) as revenue soars for the seventh straight quarter.

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine received a slight setback recently after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) told the company it needs more time to finish its assessment of the emergency use authorization (EUA) of the vaccine for adolescents aged 12 to 17. Specifically, the agency said it needed to evaluate recent international analyses of the risk of myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle, after vaccination. The FDA said its review may not be completed before January 2022. Moderna first received EUA for its COVID-19 vaccine for adults 18 years of age and older on Dec. 18, 2020. It was the second vaccine to receive the FDA's approval for emergency use after the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and German-based BioNTech (BNTX).

Shares of Moderna have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. The stock, fueled by investor optimism over the company's COVID-19 vaccine, continued to gain momentum during most of the year. Its performance especially picked up through the first half of summer this year, but has since given back some of those gains. Moderna's shares have provided a total return of 419.5% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 39.9%.

One Year Total Return for S&P 500 and Moderna
Source: TradingView.

Moderna Earnings History

Moderna reported Q2 FY 2021 earnings and revenue that matched analysts' consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS came in positive for the second straight quarter following years of losses. Revenue was up more than 65 times compared to the year-ago quarter. Moderna said that it expected its dose capacity for its COVID-19 vaccine to be between 800 million and 1 billion doses in FY 2021 and between 2 billion and 3 billion doses in FY 2022.

In Q1 FY 2021, Moderna beat analysts' earnings expectations but missed on revenue. The company reported its first profitable quarter ever, posting adjusted EPS of $2.91 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.29 in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose more than 230 times on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. Moderna noted that its COVID-19 vaccine had received emergency authorization by health agencies in various regions around the world, including the European Union, the U.K., Canada, and others.

Analysts expect Moderna's earnings and revenue to continue to post dramatic gains in Q3 FY 2021. The company is expected to post its third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EPS. Revenue is forecast to increase more than 38 times compared to the year-ago quarter. For full-year FY 2021, analysts expect Moderna to post its first full year of positive adjusted EPS as annual revenue rises approximately 25-fold.

Moderna Key Stats
  Estimate for Q3 FY 2021 Q3 FY 2020 Q3 FY 2019
Adjusted Earnings Per Share ($) 9.54 -0.53 -0.31
Revenue ($M) 6,044.4 157.9 17.0

Source: Visible Alpha

On Oct. 20, 2021, the FDA amended its EUA for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, approving it for use as a single booster dose at least 6 months after the first initial doses for the following individuals: those 65 years of age and older; those aged 18 to 64 at high risk of severe COVID-19; and those aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to the virus. The approval as a booster dose will help to increase demand for Moderna's vaccine, adding more fuel to its revenue and earnings growth.

The company is also working on a number of vaccines to specifically treat variants of COVID-19, such as the Beta and Delta variants. These vaccines are at various stages of development. Moderna is also developing vaccines and other medications using mRNA technology. Its vaccine against cytomegalovirus, a common virus for people of all ages, has entered into the third phase of development. Its personalized cancer vaccine that is being developed in collaboration with Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) is in phase 2 of development.

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