Moderna Sales Could Drop on Weakening COVID-19 Vaccine Demand

Profit is expected to decline for second straight quarter

moderna logo on baseball field
Adam Glanzman / Getty Images.

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimate adjusted EPS of $2.88 vs. $7.77 in Q3 FY 2021.
  • Revenue is expected to decline for the first time in in more than two years.
  • Moderna recently said it would jointly develop and sell a cancer vaccine with Merck.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), maker of the second-most-popular COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S., will probably say profit fell by nearly two-thirds as revenue declined for the first time in more than two years amid falling demand for its COVID-19 vaccine.

Moderna is likely to post a 63% drop in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), excluding certain items, to $2.88, as revenue falls by 20% to $4.0 billion, according to average estimates from Visible Alpha.

Moderna and rival Pfizer Inc. (PFE) have dominated sales of COVID-19 vaccines, and Pfizer reported better-than-expected U.S. sales in the third quarter thanks to its Omicron-targeted boosters. Demand for these products is waning globally, though, and both companies are shifting their focus to new products. Moderna recently announced it would jointly develop and sell personalized cancer vaccines for patients with high-risk melanoma with Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK).

Moderna's stock has fallen 54% in the past 12 months compared with a 16% decline in the S&P 500 Index.

One-year trailing total return S&P 500 for Moderna
Source: TradingView.

Moderna Earnings History

After years of losses through the end of 2020, Moderna posted a profit in six straight periods through the second quarter of this year. Profit declined 19% in the second quarter. as revenue growth slowed to the slowest pace in nine periods.

Moderna Key Stats
  Estimate for Q3 FY 2022 Q3 FY 2021 Q3 FY 2020
Adjusted Earnings Per Share ($) 2.88 7.77 -0.53
Revenue ($B) 4.0 5.0 0.2

Source: Visible Alpha

Moderna's Omicron-targeting bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine received emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for people as young as six years old. In October, the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommended marketing authorization in the EU for Moderna's booster to be given to individuals at 12 years of age.

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