Moderna Q4 FY 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is expected to report its first annual profit ever in its fourth-quarter report this week as sales of its vaccine against COVID-19 continue to soar. Demand for the vaccine is likely to continue to boost the company's earnings and revenue as it develops other mRNA-based medicines that treat cancer, herpes and other diseases. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently gave its full stamp of approval to Moderna's vaccine for prevention of COVID-19 in individuals aged 18 years or older. The FDA said that the approval may help encourage more people to get vaccinated, which may further bolster demand for the vaccine.

Investors will watch to see if Moderna can maintain its recent profit streak and exponential profit growth when it reports earnings on Feb. 24, 2022 for Q4 FY 2021. Analysts expect Moderna to report its fourth straight quarter of positive earnings per share (EPS) as revenue continues to soar on sales of the company's COVID-19 vaccine.

Moderna's vaccine is now being marketed in the U.S. as Spikevax following its approval by the FDA. The vaccine, which is administered as a two-dose series, had been available under the FDA's emergency use authorization (EUA) designation since Dec. 18, 2020. A booster dose of the vaccine for individuals 18 years of age and older is available under an EUA.

Shares of Moderna have underperformed the broader market over the past year. The stock mostly lagged the market between late February 2021 and late May 2021. It then began to outperform, picking up momentum through June before taking off around mid-July. The stock peaked in early August and since then has been largely on a sustained decline, giving up the gains made during the first part of the summer. Moderna's shares have provided a total return of -9.0% over the past year, below the S&P 500's total return of 11.1%.

Moderna Earnings History

Moderna reported Q3 FY 2021 earnings results that missed analysts' expectations. EPS came in positive for the third straight quarter after years of consecutive quarterly losses per share. Third-quarter revenue was up more than 31 times the amount of revenue the company posted in the year-ago quarter. The company said in its earnings press release that it expects deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine to be between 700 million and 800 million doses for all of FY 2021.

In Q2 FY 2021, Moderna's earnings and revenue matched consensus estimates. EPS more than doubled from Q1 FY 2021, marking the second straight quarter of profitability. Revenue expanded nearly 66 times the amount of revenue the company recorded in the year-ago quarter. In its earnings press release, Moderna announced that its board of directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion over a period of two years in order to return excess capital to the company's shareholders.

Analysts expect another strong performance from Moderna in Q4 FY 2021. EPS is expected to be positive for the fourth consecutive quarter and nearly three-and-a-half times the EPS posted in the first quarter of the year. Revenue is expected to be up 12-fold compared to the year-ago quarter. For full-year FY 2021, analysts expect Moderna to report its first annual profit ever as revenue is forecast to expand 22 times from FY 2020. It would be the second straight year of annual revenue growth after two straight years of declines.

^{Source: Visible Alpha}

Following the FDA's approval of Spikevax on Jan. 31, 2022, Moderna issued a press release highlighting that its vaccine has received approval from regulators in over 70 countries, including Canada, Japan, the European Union (EU), the U.K., and Israel. It also indicated that 807 million doses of its vaccine were shipped globally in 2021, exceeding its forecast for deliveries made in its Q3 FY 2021 earnings press release.

On Feb. 17, 2022, Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) provisionally approved Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in children aged 6-11 years, meaning the vaccine is now approved in Australia for individuals 6 years of age and older. Moderna said this was the first regulatory approval for its vaccine for this age group. Further approvals from other regulators around the world for younger age groups will help to boost demand for the company's vaccine.