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Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 16, 2023: Rates Drop

30-year average dips again, sinking to lowest level in four weeks

March 16

After a modest one-day increase, mortgage rates were back to declining Wednesday. The 30-year average shed an eighth of a point and almost very other mortgage average also dropped by double digits.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates
Loan Type Purchase Refinance
30-Year Fixed 6.84% 7.18%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.83% 7.24%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% 5.77%
15-Year Fixed 6.06% 6.29%
5/6 ARM 6.76% 7.01%
National averages of the lowest rates offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, with a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80%, an applicant with a FICO credit score of 700–760, and no mortgage points.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages returned to their recent downward trend, after a one-day climb took them slightly higher. Wednesday saw the flagship average decline 13 basis points, landing at a one-month low of 6.84%. Rates are currently sitting between the five-month valley of 6.11% enjoyed in early February and the historic 20-year peak of 7.58% reached in October.

Rates on 15-year loans dropped even further, sinking almost two-tenths of a point Wednesday. Now down to 6.06%, the 15-year average is still well above the 5.23% low point registered in early February, but is almost a full percentage point cheaper than October's 15-year peak of 7.03%.

Rates on Jumbo 30-year loans meanwhile dipped further below 6%, subtracting 13 basis points to rest at 5.77%. That's the lowest average since mid-February, and is a full half point under the 12-year high of 6.27% seen in October.

Refinancing rates moved essentially in step with new purchase rates Wednesday. The 30-year refi average gave up 18 basis points, the 15-year refi average dropped 19 points, and Jumbo 30-year rates came down 13 points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 34 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.

National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - New Purchase
New Purchase Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.84% - 0.13
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.83% - 0.14
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.71% - 0.24
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% - 0.13
20-Year Fixed 6.38% - 0.30
15-Year Fixed 6.06% - 0.19
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.02% - 0.13
10-Year Fixed 5.98% - 0.22
10/6 ARM 6.75% - 0.06
7/6 ARM 6.62% - 0.30
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.71% - 0.12
5/6 ARM 6.76% No Change
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.93% No Change
National Averages of Lenders' Best Rates - Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.18% - 0.18
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.24% - 0.05
VA 30-Year Fixed 7.17% - 0.17
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 5.77% - 0.13
20-Year Fixed 6.75% - 0.41
15-Year Fixed 6.29% - 0.19
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.02% - 0.13
10-Year Fixed 6.21% - 0.18
10/6 ARM 7.08% No Change
7/6 ARM 7.08% - 0.01
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 5.81% - 0.12
5/6 ARM 7.01% + 0.16
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 5.93% No Change

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude March 22.


The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.

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