(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager.)
The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride, which saw equity prices drop to start the month of February only to roar back by the end of February. It leaves some investors with the feeling that they may have missed out on an opportunity to pick up some stocks at bargain basement prices. But in some cases, despite rallying off their respective lows, some stocks are still reasonably valued or even cheap, based on earnings and sales multiples. (For more, see also: Correction Was 2018's 'Appetizer': Morgan Stanley.)
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK), Vertex Pharmacueticals Inc. (VRTX), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA), Qorvo Inc. (QRVO) and Vulcan Material Co. (VMC), could be six stocks that based on analyst estimates and expected growth rates over the next year, could be bargains based on their current valuations and anticipated growth.
Analysts estimates are calling for Autodesk's earnings to climb from a loss in fiscal 2018 of $0.51 to earnings of $1.25 in 2019, and $3.27 in 2020, a growth rate of roughly 163% from 2019 to 2020. The stock currently trades at only 35 times one-year forward earnings estimates, making it seem like a bargain for the earnings growth. Meanwhile, sales are expected to grow by 27% in fiscal 2020 to $3.24 billion from $2.55 billion in 2019, which are also significant growth numbers. In fact, the software company is only up about 32% over the past 52 weeks, despite the considerable growth expectations. (For related reading, see: Autodesk Stock Fall to Support After Q3 Earnings.)
Shares fell sharply in November after Autodesk announced a corporate restructuring, but estimates from analysts have remained relatively unchanged since, according to data from Ycharts. The company is expected to report results on March 2, where analysts are looking for a fiscal fourth-quarter loss of $0.11 per share, and revenue to have grown by about 14% to $544.5 million.
Ulta Beauty had seen its shares fall by nearly 10% to start the year, after a rough finish to 2017 when the company lowered its outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2018. But still, analysts are looking for substantial growth from Ulta with earnings climbing by 21% in fiscal 2020 to $12.82 from $10.57, while revenue is expected to grow 13.5% to $7.6 billion from $6.7 billion. The stock currently trades at only 15.7 times one-year forward earnings, which seems reasonably cheap for a company with expectations for strong earnings and revenue growth. The company is expected to report results on March 15, where analysts are looking for revenue to climb by almost 23% to $1.94 billion, and earnings are expected to rise nearly 25% to $2.80, from a year ago.
It is important to watch how any of these company's results fare versus expectations. Investors sometimes begin to price in lowered expectations before analysts revise their estimates.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.