Investors seeking shares that can weather a recession that may come in the next three to four months should consider buying global stocks such as German vehicle maker Daimler AG; South Korean auto manufacturer Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd.; Japanese motorcycle maker Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd.; wireless provider China Mobile Ltd. (CHL); French-based aerospace company Airbus SE; Swiss banking firm UBS Group Inc. (UBS); German electronics company Siemens AG (SIEGY); German banking giant Deutsche Bank AG (DB); and U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), per Barron's.
These picks come from independent investment management firm Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI), whose model portfolio of 50 global stocks has risen at an average annual rate of 20.6% since 2006, with no down years, per data provided to Barron's by Carlo Besenius, CEO and chief global strategist of CGI. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has generated an average annual total return (with dividends reinvested) of 7.4% over the same time period, Barron's says.
Many of these stocks are cheap or are in economies on the upswing, Besenius tells Barron's. While CGI has been negative on the auto sector since a year and a half ago, he thinks it's now a good time to buy for large institutional investors. He finds auto stocks to be cheap on the basis of price to cash flow, price to book, and price to sales. Daimler, Hyundai and Yamaha, as noted above, are CGI's top picks in this industry. In particular, he views Daimler as a "fantastic opportunity" with great management, "the best auto portfolio at the moment," and a "solid" trucking business.
Besenius sees impressive strength in the German economy, which some observers, but not he, believe is on the verge of overheating. Additionally, Deutsche Bank, as well as its Swiss rival UBS, are bound to benefit from Brexit, which he believes will cause the U.K. to "suffer tremendously." He estimates that about 300,000 financial services jobs will leave London for the continent in the next three to five years. (For more, see also: The Impact of Recession on Businesses.)
Looming U.S. Recession
Besenius tells Barron's that low U.S. unemployment figures have had a weak impact on consumer spending, and he expects a recession to begin in the next three to four months, perhaps earlier. He also says that the last rate increase by the Federal Reserve was a mistake, given the level of indebtedness in the U.S. economy. Interestingly, given this massive level of consumer and business debt, as well as the downward pressure on bond prices (which would increase yields) that should ensue as The Fed begins the anticipated unwinding of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, he believes that the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note could drop to 1.70% in the autumn. (For more, see also: A Review of Past Recessions.)