It won't be long now. That's the message from Daily Reckoning writer David Stockman who says a tech crash is imminent, and the company most at risk is the darling of 2017, e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).
In an August 1 post titled Amazon is the New Tech Crash, Stockman, a former Director of the Federal Office of Management and Budget, said Amazon is in the middle on a speculative blow up much like the Nasdaq was in the late 1990's before the dotcom bubble. "Not to be forgotten, however, is that one year after the March 2000 peak, the NASDAQ 100 was down by 70%, and it ultimately bottomed 82% lower in September 2002. I expect no less of a spectacular collapse in the case of this cycle’s equivalent shooting star," Stockman said.
Year-to-date shares of Amazon have climbed by more than 30 percent as a string of acquisitions and new ventures has fueled investor buying. Share's in the online retailer reached a high of $1083, which saw its market cap soar above $500 billion and took CEO and founder Jeff Bezos to the number one spot of the worlds rich list. (See also: Jeff Bezos: Trillionaire By 2042?)
Adding further perspective, since the Great Recession, Amazon shares have risen 2,420 percent from its November 2008 low of $34.68 a share.
Despite the colossal rally, Stockman isn't buying the euphoria. Citing a p/e ratio of 190x, he argues that the numbers don't add up. "After all, Amazon is 24 years-old, not a start-up. It hasn’t invented anything explosively new like the iPhone or personal computer. Instead, 91% of its sales involve sourcing, moving, storing and delivering goods," Stockman said. (See also: Amazon's Stumble Creates Opportunity for Investors)
In addition to his skepticism of Amazon's business model, Stockman blames central banks for creating false growth through excessive cheap money, and when this realization comes home to roost, the panic buttons will be pushed at an alarming pace. " When the selling starts and the vast horde of momentum traders who have inflated it relentlessly in recent months make a bee line for the exits, the March 2000 dotcom crash will seem like a walk in the park," Stockman finished.