As Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fears dominate Wall Street sentiment with the e-commerce giant’s push into new markets such as brick-and-mortar grocery retail with its $13.7 billion buyout of Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM), one team of analysts sees the tech stock surging even higher. (See also: Amazon: Whole Foods Price Cuts to Boost Prime Subs.)
Shares of the Seattle-based e-commerce and cloud computing giant have rallied nearly 30% year-to-date (YTD) versus the S&P 500’s 10% gain over the same period, reflected in a market capitalization of about $469 billion.
Potential $3,400 Share Price
Analysts at MKM Partners make the case for Amazon’s future $1.6 trillion valuation, beating out America’s leading retailer Wal-Mart Stories Inc. (WMT) as well as exceeding the market cap of both Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL) combined. MKM Partners’ Rob Sanderson sees the potential for a $3,400 share price in years to come, about 3.5 times AMZN’s trading price on Friday afternoon.
Sanderson, who rates AMZN at buy with a $1,275 price target, is particularly upbeat on the online retailer’s third-party sellers, or “3P” business, as he sees it helping Amazon grab a larger share of the retail market. While 3P sales now make up a majority of AMZN’s retail merchandise sales, up from 30% in 2013, the analyst forecasts 70% of the company’s total value of retail goods transacted will be attributed to 3P in eight years.
The analyst expects that both Amazon’s domestic and international retail segments will reach $500 million on their own by 2025, with cloud unit Amazon Web Services (AWS) hitting $600 billion over the same period. “We think the U.S. retail business can achieve 15.5% share by 2025, larger than Walmart’s 12.2% in 2016,” wrote Sanderson. "We think AWS can grow at a 20% CAGR for the next 8 years and will become the world’s most valuable IT supplier.” (See also: Best Buy Has ‘No Reason to Exist’ in Amazon Age: Wedbush.)