Silver Standard shares climbed as much as 8% Wednesday, reaching a session high of $13.46. As with other natural resource specialists, the Vancouver-based miner saw its stock struggle while investors speculated whether the Fed would take action Wednesday. But unlike some of its peers, Silver Standard shares have maintained their 200-day average. Now with the stock adding better-than 7% pop Wednesday, how much more upside is left? (See also: Silver Standard Advances Diablillos, M-18 Projects.)
Silver Standard stock closed Wednesday at $13.39, up 7.46%. The shares have risen 130% in the previous six months and 160% year-to-date. This compares with a 5.83% year-to-date rise in the S&P 500 (SPX) index. Silver Standard shares have traded in the range of $3.66 to $15.84 in the past 52 weeks. This means, based on Wednesday's closing price, the stock has gained 266% from its 52-week low.
Here's the thing, however: From a valuation perspective, the stock is currently priced at a forward P/E ratio of 16, which is inline with the average stock in the S&P 500 index. The forward P/E is 17 based on fiscal 2017 estimates of 75 cents per share, which is also about inline with the average stock in the S&P 500 index. How can the stock post these outsized gains and still be cheap? The market doesn't expect Silver Standard to grow earnings beyond this year.
Assuming the company does earn 75 cents per share for fiscal 2017, this would mark a decline of 7.4% from 81 cents per share forecasted for fiscal 2016. (See also: The Top 5 Small Cap Silver Stocks for 2016.)
In other words, despite what appears to be an attractive valuation that falls within the range of the overall market, Silver Standard is expected to underperform where it matters the most; on the bottom line.