The Nasdaq 100 just hit another all-time high, as did the amount of people quoting the percentage of the index's gains that are from its top five components. While that makes for a good headline and soundbite, it's not really all that actionable. What is actionable is the chart below, which we spoke about in early June.
There are 51 stocks down since the Nasdaq 100's initial peak on Jan. 26, meaning that there is opportunity on both sides of the tape if you're so inclined. What it also tells us is that it doesn't pay to get ideological about how large components like Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) have become. It's a cap-weighted index, which means that, as long as the leaders keep leading, the index is going to move higher. When their performance deteriorates, so will that of the index; it works on the way up and on the way down. It's just math.
This includes names like Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI), which has been consolidating above a rising 200-day moving average for six months while momentum maintained its bullish range. Now the stock is breaking out to new highs, suggesting that we want to be long if prices are above $77.50 and taking profits up near $108. (See also: Gaming ETFs Take Off.)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is also breaking out to new highs after nine months of consolidation in which momentum never got oversold. As long as prices are above $83.50, we want to be long with a price target of $116.75. (For more, see: PayPal Seen Jumping 18% on Strong Growth.)
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