Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) is one of the mall anchors hurt by the swell of online retail sales from Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN). When you look at the daily chart below, you will see a huge upside price move that peaked in July. This was fueled by activist investors looking to buy Dillard's as a play on its mall real estate. This deal fell by the wayside, leading the stock into bear market territory.
The stock closed Monday at $60.09, up 7% over the past 52 weeks and in bull market territory at 32% above its 52-week low of $45.51 set on May 12. However, the stock had been trading as high as $83.44 on July 31 on the take-over chatter and is in bear market territory since then, down 28%. (See also: Dillard's Strategies on Track, Boosts Shareholders' Returns.)
The daily chart for Dillard's
The horizontal lines on the daily chart for Dillard's are the Fibonacci retracement levels of the rally from the May 12 low of $45.51 to the July 31 high of $83.44. The 61.8% retracement of $60.02 has been a magnet since Aug. 10, including on Monday. The stock failed at its 50% retracement of $64.50 on Nov. 30 and Dec. 26. Weakness since these tests held the 200-day simple moving average, now at $56.50.
The weekly chart for Dillard's
The weekly chart for Dillard's is positive, with the stock above its five-week modified moving average of $58.50. The stock is well below its 200-week simple moving average at $83.18, which is also the "reversion to the mean," last tested during the week of Oct. 23, 2015, when the average was $92.11. Note that the all-time intraday high of $144.21 was set during the week of April 17, 2015, and that week saw a weekly negative "key reversal," which occurs when the week's close is below the prior week's low. The 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic reading is projected to rise to 59.64 this week, up from 58.48 on Jan. 5.
Given these charts and analysis, I recommend buying Dillard's on weakness to my quarterly value level of $58.14 and reducing holdings on strength to my semiannual and monthly risky levels of $61.41 and $62.41, respectively. (For additional reading, check out: The Four R's of Investing in Retail.)