While many assume luxury electric car maker Tesla Inc. (TSLA) would benefit the most from the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit, one team of analysts on the Street notes that competitors, most notably Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY) and General Motor Inc. (GM), will see the greatest impact. (See also: Tesla Could Jump 70% on Model 3 Success: Analysts.)
On Wednesday, the Republican Party’s contentious tax bill passed through the U.S. Congress, representing the first major tax overhaul in three decades. Following the news, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas advised clients that the new legislation appears to have left the $7,500 EV tax credit intact. However, he indicated that the current law and its proposed extension isn’t too much of a win for Tesla, since it only applies to the first 200,000 vehicles sold, at which point it “phases out over time.”
Jonas expects that the Palo Alto, Calif.-based EV pioneer, helmed by celebrity CEO Elon Musk, will cross the sales threshold by mid-2018 at the latest. As a result, he hasn’t included the tax credit in his financial model. He added that Tesla’s cars are much more expensive relative to its rivals, closer to the $100,000 mark for the Model S and Model X and about $50,000 for its first mass-market sedan, the Model 3. As a result, the tax credit represents a smaller portion of the purchasing price than cars such as Nissan’s Leaf and GM’s Chevrolet Bolt.
“Overall we view the retaining of the tax credit as more important for other players who are much further away from the 200k US sales mark, and where the pricing and exclusive nature of brand may not be on par with the average Tesla,” wrote the Morgan Stanley analyst. (See also: Startup Takes on Tesla with Budget Electric Car.)