Macy's, Inc. (M) is one of the major mall anchors hurt by losing market share to online retail giant Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and its army of Prime members. Macy's will likely announce close-out sales this week as 11 stores are shuttered. A year ago, the retailer announced that more than 60 locations would be closed, bringing the planned total to 100 store closures.

Macy's shares closed Friday at $24.48, down 20.6% over the past 52 weeks, but the stock is in bull market territory at 40.6% above its 52-week low of $17.41, which was set on Nov. 7 as Christmas shopping began. Even so, the stock is in bear market territory at 28.8% below its 52-week intraday high of $34.37 set on Feb. 3, 2017. Since Nov. 7, Amazon stock posted a solid gain of 9.4% but was outperformed by Macy's. (See also: Macy's, JC Penney Face More Declines, Options Trades Suggest.)

The daily chart for Macy's

Daily technical chart showing the performance of Macy's, Inc. (M) stockCourtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Macy's has been below a "death cross" since Feb. 2, 2017, when the stock closed at $30.72. A "death cross" occurs when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day simple moving average and indicates that lower prices lie ahead. The stock has been above its 200-day simple moving average since Dec. 1, and if this is sustained, a "golden cross" becomes possible.

The horizontal lines on the daily chart are my quarterly and semiannual risky levels of $26.27 and $28.66, respectively. Note that $26.27 was tested on Jan. 3.

The weekly chart for Macy's

Weekly technical chart showing the performance of Macy's, Inc. (M) stock

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart for Macy's is positive, with the stock above its five-week modified moving average of $33.80, which was tested at last week's low. The stock is well below its 200-week simple moving average at $44.69, which is also the "reversion to the mean," last tested during the week of Nov. 6, 2015, when the average was $50.90. The 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week rising to 79.83, up from 78.74 on Dec. 29 and just below the overbought threshold of 80.00.

Macy's stock set its all-time intraday high of $73.61 during the week of July 17, 2015, and since then, it has been crumbling under the increasing pressure of online sales by Amazon. Given these charts and analysis, I recommend buying Macy's shares on weakness to my monthly value level of $16.56 and reducing holdings on strength to my quarterly and semiannual risky levels of $26.27 and $28.66, respectively. (For more, see: 5 Retail Stocks That May Ruin Your New Year.)

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