Shortly after 2:30 a.m. EST November 9th, multiple news outlets including The Associated Press said Republican candidate Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States, and global markets tumbled on the uncertainty ahead. The Republican party also appears to have maintained its control of the House and Senate, paving the way for them to break the 4-4 ideological split in final branch, the Supreme Court. Risk assets across the board plunged on the news, and investors flocked to safe haven assets to brace themselves. 

As U.S. markets open Wednesday morning, however, equities and other pummeled assets have reversed their losses, while assets that had surged on the news are settling back to more modest gains.


At one stage last night Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures trading was halted after the negative 5 percent limit down was reached, and Dow futures were down more than 750 points at one point. The slide began shortly after 10 p.m. Tuesday when Trump was awarded Florida and Ohio, two key battleground states. 

Yet as of 10:00 a.m. the S&P 500 is up 0.1%, another shock for those who anticipated a precipitous drop.  

In Asia, all equity indexes are in the red: the Hang Seng index closed down 2.2%, the Nikkei 225 index down 5.4%. 


The Mexican peso has been a bellwether for election sentiment, and following the news of Trump's victory it fell to its lowest level ever. The currency fell as much as 13% against the U.S. dollar and traded through the psychological barrier of 20.00. The peso's fall is the biggest one-day fall in nearly 20 years, and Mexico's central bank has said it will host a press conference in the morning to discuss it. Last week, Agustin Carstens, Mexico's Central Bank Governor said the central bank is ready to act if required saying there is "a contingency plan that we're discussing with the Finance Ministry."

Following the open, the peso has pared back to 19.96 against the U.S. dollar, and Mexican authorities have yet to pull the trigger on an interest rate hike to halt the falling peso. 

The Japanese yen, considered a safe haven currency, rose as much as 4% in Asia before paring those gains in the run-up to the U.S. market open. The yen had been weakening over the last month. 

Safe-haven Assets

Gold futures, sovereign bonds, and other safe have assets rallied in Asia. Gold hit $1317 in Asian trading, making a one-month high. The flight-to-quality has seen Bitcoin prices rise with Gold, trading above $733. (See also: Will Bitcoin Become the new "Swiss Bank Account"?)

The bond market has had a volatile overnight session. At one point the U.S. 10-year yield was down 13 basis points to 1.73 percent, before recovering all the initial losses. At the time of writing, it stands at 1.93%. Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. Federal Reserve are to meet next month where, on Friday, the probability of a hike was 86%, these odds were initially slashed in half as short term yields plummeted. The CME FedWatch tool currently has the probability of a hike at 72%. (See also: Hedge Funds Turn to Gold as Fears of Election Fallout Grow.)

The Bottom Line

Markets reacted strongly to Trump's success early Wednesday, but these jitters appear to halve calmed for the moment. There is likely more volatility ahead, however, and in the long term, prospects for markets under a Trump administration are anything but certain. The support Trump has seen is part of a continuing global trend of populism, and the win is eerily similar to the Brexit vote, where for months prior the chance of a leave vote wasn't taken seriously by the media or the odds makers.

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