WTI futures fell over 1% to just over $50 per barrel after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced expectations of lower oil supplies and higher demand. According to OPEC, oil supply outside of OPEC is expected to fall 680 million barrels per day in 2016. Next year, oil supply is expected to rise 240 million barrels per day as a result of new production projects in Russia.
While supplies are declining, and next year’s growth will not normalize supplies to 2015’s heights, demand for oil is rising. OPEC sees a 1.24 million barrels per day increase to world oil demand. Oil demand is expected to rise even further in 2017 by 1.15 million barrels per day. In total, the world will consume 94.4 million barrels per day of the commodity on average in 2016. Demand from Asia, which was higher than OPEC’s previous expectations, is driving the growth in oil consumption.
Oil and the energy sector have seen continued strength after WTI futures hit their 52-week low of $34.10 per barrel in January of this year. Prices have risen above their 20-day average $47.33 after OPEC member nations suggested an agreement to cut or freeze oil production is likely to be struck in November. (See also: Will OPEC Cut Oil Production?)
Rising demand and the possibility of a cut in production among OPEC member nations has driven speculators to bid up the price of oil in recent weeks. OPEC is also estimating demand for OPEC-produced crude to rise 31.8 million barrels per day in 2016, up 6% on a year-over-year basis. OPEC also expects demand to rise 2.5% in 2017 from 2016-levels.
There are several ETFs that either go long or short oil, including United States Oil (USO), ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO), ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) and VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (UWTI). UWTI was the worst performer, down 3% in pre-market trading.