Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) shares fell more than 14% since the company reported its third quarter guidance. The iconic coffee chain anticipates just 1% growth in comparable store sales during the third quarter, which fell short of consensus estimates. Several analysts, including Morgan Stanley, Cowen & Co. and Kelsey Advisors, responded by trimming their price targets and lowering their ratings, although Oppenheimer analysts remain optimistic about the future for Starbucks.
In addition to the hiccup in same-store sales, CEO Howard Schultz will step aside next week from his executive chair position, and CFO Scott Maw announced that he would be retiring at the end of November. Schultz, who is rumored to be exploring a political career, remains very bullish on the company's long-term prospects – particularly in China – and recently called the stock "undervalued" in a CNBC interview. (See also: Starbucks' Battered Stock May Fall 16% Further.)
From a technical standpoint, the stock broke down from trendline support at around $53.00 following its third quarter guidance. The relative strength index (RSI) fell to oversold levels at 26.23, but the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) experienced a crossover below the zero line and remains in bearish territory. These indicators suggest that the stock could see some near-term consolidation, but the medium-term trend could still be lower.
Traders should watch for some consolidation above the $48.00 level and a move higher toward the pivot point at $51.39. If the stock breaks down lower, traders could see a move to S1 support at $44.83 or S2 support at $40.82. If the stock breaks out higher, traders should watch for a move above the pivot point at $51.39 to retest trendline resistance at $53.00, although this scenario appears less likely over the near term. (For more, see: Starbucks to Close 150 Underperforming Stores, Hike Dividend.)
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. The author holds no position in the stock(s) mentioned except through passively managed index funds.