(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager. He and his clients own shares of TSLA.)
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares have plunged more than 26 percent since September amid huge cash losses and production delays of its all-electric four-door sedan, the Model 3. That has strained the loyalty of even Tesla's most ardent investors. But now, they may get a reprieve of sorts. Technical charts suggest Tesla's shares are poised for a short-term bounce, rising by as much as 11% back to approximately $310.
It's not just the technical charts. Analysts have been growing slightly more bullish on the stock as well, raising their earnings and revenue estimates for the coming year. Investors are waiting anxiously to learn whether weekly production rates for the Model 3 are on track, and the stock could get a boost if the news is good. The company will make an announcement after the end of the second quarter.
The technical chart shows that the stock has put in a solid base around the $275 level, acting as strong technical support. The stock also appears to have broken out of a short-term downtrend, indicating that the shares are poised to rise back toward resistance of around $310.25. The stock has been at that level on three prior occasions and has failed to break out each time. (See: Tesla Stock May Break Out, Fueling a 10% Increase)
Weak Relative Strength
Tesla's stock must overcome key resistance before rising longterm. The relative strength index (RSI) has been trending lower since April of 2017 and may be suggesting that shares still have further to fall. This indicator and the stock price have been steadily declining in unison. To become bullish, investors need to see the RSI begin to rise as Tesla’s stock price falls, indicating a bullish divergence.
Analysts have been modestly raising their estimates for Tesla for both 2018 and 2019. They now see revenue climbing by 66.4 percent to $19.57 billion, up 2 percent and forecast the company will lose $6.96 per share for the year, an improvement of 2.6 percent over the past month. Additionally, revenue estimates for 2019 have also increased by 2.25 percent to $27.4 billion. However, the significant change has been the 24 percent increase in the outlook for earnings in 2019 over the past month to a profit of $1.97 per share.
Tesla's stock appears to be trying to gain momentum as analysts’ views on its fundamentals improve. However, until Tesla can prove it can get over the production hurdle of 5,000 cars per week for the Model 3, the company's shares are unlikely to see a sustained advance.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.