(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager.)
Signs are emerging that Micron Technology Inc.'s (MU) stock may be running on empty, and may be set to fall by roughly 9%, based on technical analysis. Shares of Micron have dropped by nearly 15% since reporting strong quarterly results in the middle of March. But, despite the significant pullback, shares of Micron are still up 26% on the year and up nearly 94% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has climbed by only 16%.
The technical charts come in stark contrast to the analysts that have been steadily raising their earnings' estimates, and price target. But investors appear to be sending a different message—and that could lead to shares falling further.
Micron's stock chart shows a stock that is trending lower since peaking before the fiscal second-quarter results on March 22. The trend line has been forming over the past several weeks, and technical resistance around $52.25 has been tough for the shares to rise above, despite several attempts. It seems likely that should shares continue lower along this downtrend, that the stock could test support at the April 6 low around $47.25, a drop of nearly 9% from its current price. This would give the stock a decline of over 25% from the highs. (For related reading, see also: Micron's Stock Near a Breakdown.)
Weak Relative Strength
The relative strength index (RSI) has been trending lower since the middle of March, after peaking near 80. A reading over 70 indicates that a stock has become overbought, and a reading below 30 indicates the stock is oversold. With the RSI currently around 50, shares of Micron would need to fall further for the RSI to indicate shares are oversold.
Volume has also been declining since peaking in mid-March as well, serving as a sign that investors and traders are losing interest in the name. The stock saw increasing volumes as the stock was rising from mid-February through mid-March. But now, we can see that volume has been falling, along with the stock price. (For more, see also: Micron Stock: Is the Rally at Risk?)
The weakness in the stock comes after the company beat earnings estimates by nearly 3%, and revenue estimates by almost 1%. Analysts have been increasing their earnings estimates for the coming quarter, with earnings estimates up by 7% over the past 30 days, while revenue estimates have climbed by 3%. Analysts have also been aggressively upping their price target on the stock, with the average price target on the stock at $71.31, 38% higher than the current price.
Investors appear to be at odds over the direction of Micron's stock as shares look set to fall further, despite strong results and bullish analysts.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the founder of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of two to three years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein.Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.