A gain of 53.07% in 2019 for shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) tells a story of big buy demand lifting the shares. This buying is very unusual and has been happening very recently. As the move to 5G ramps up, some semiconductor stocks could be rewarded handsomely. We think the rush for this group is happening now. A great way to uncover tomorrow's winners is to look for great stocks seeing big buy activity, and NVIDIA could be just the opportunity.

Smart money managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks … the best in class. For Mapsignals, it's not enough to look at technicals and fundamentals alone. The key lies in the demand for shares … the big money.

I'll go into the fundamental picture later, but the true tell on the near-term trajectory of a stock lies in its trading activity. Simply put, it's all about supply and demand. When demand is higher than supply, the stock rises. When demand is lower than supply, stocks fall. For 2019, NVIDIA stock has come under pressure over China trade fears. As those fears dissipate, the focus looks to be on the next leg higher for 5G companies. 

For Mapsignals, when we look for an entry on a leading stock, we look for big money signals. Just to show you what our big money activity signals look like, have a look at all of the big money (unusual institutional) signals NVIDIA has made over the past year. Focusing on 2019, you can see a lot of buy signals (green) early in the year followed by sells signals (red) once China trade worries hit. What's happening now is that big buying is rushing in:

Chart showing the unusual institutional (UI) buy and sell signals made by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Since September, NVIDIA has logged six big money buy signals, indicative of buying in the shares (see chart above). This shows that traders are likely thinking that the shares are poised to head higher. These data points suggest that big money appetite for the stock is high.

If you are going to make a bet on the direction of a stock, it is prudent to pay attention to how the shares are trading. Based on history, the odds suggest that this stock is poised for gains. The big money is always looking for an opportunity to buy shares in fast-growing companies. It's all about playing the odds by not fighting the trend.

Mapsignals' goal is to identify tomorrow's top stocks today. We're basically looking for outlier companies with healthy fundamentals accompanied by big money signals (outsized institutional activity). We are looking for the big money bets because big money moves stocks. By studying these data points, we can make an educated guess as to which stocks institutions are trafficking in and marry this information with fundamentally sound companies. We want the odds on our side when looking for the highest-quality stocks.

When we decide on a long candidate, we consider leaders that have a history of technical outperformance. When they show leadership, we see these as opportunities. The following are a few areas in which NVIDIA stock has grabbed our attention year to date (YTD):

  • YTD outperformance vs. market: +31.34% vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY
  • YTD outperformance vs. semiconductor industry: +8.16% vs. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
  • Recent big money buy signals

Now, we take it a step further and score the best stocks showing big money trading activity. Below you can see that NVIDIA has a big history of buy signals for Mapsignals. The main takeaway is how the buy signals tend to last for a while when they get started. We think a new round of buy signals could be upon us soon:

Chart showing the top-rated buy signals made by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

On top of a long-term technical picture that is strong, one should also look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, NVIDIA's numbers are very strong:

  • Three-year revenue growth rate: +33.04%
  • Three-year earnings growth rate: +90.54%

NVIDIA shares are breaking out as the market is at new highs. The company is quietly gaining with demand for its shares. We like the long-term story of the stock. The narrative for NVIDIA and other high-quality 5G semiconductor stocks is one of a growth cycle in the years ahead.

We are always on the lookout for great companies pressing higher year after year. The best companies in a group tend to outperform over the long run. Semiconductor stocks have been one of the strongest groups in recent years. All of this points to a long-term opportunity for the stock.

The Bottom Line

NVIDIA stock is breaking out with buying pressure. Our big money indicator is signaling that we should take notice. Shares could be positioned for more upside. Given the historical growth in share price and growing fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio. 

Disclosure: The author holds no position in NVIDIA stock at the time of publication.

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