The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose more than 3% during Tuesday's session amid rising geopolitical risks in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Global indexes moved lower following the U.S. decision to impose new tariffs on China, Boris Johnson's loss of a parliamentary majority in the U.K., and Argentina's move to impose currency controls in order to stave off a growing financial crisis.
Investors are also growing concerned over the U.S. yield curve inversion – a precursor to every recession since 1955. Short-term bond yields have risen above long-term bond yields, which suggests that the market is losing confidence over long-term economic growth. The U.S. manufacturing sector also contracted in August for the first time since 2016, while new export orders fell to their lowest levels in a decade.
The move higher for silver follows the metal's dramatic 26% rise since July, which puts it well ahead of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF's (GLD) modest 8% rise over the same time frame.
From a technical standpoint, the iShares Silver Trust ETF broke out to fresh highs during Tuesday's session. The relative strength index (RSI) moved further into overbought territory with a reading of 80.82, but the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) saw a significant upswing. These indicators suggest that silver could see some near-term consolidation before extending its move higher over the coming sessions.
Traders should watch for some consolidation near the upper end of silver's price channel near $17.00 following the breakout over the past few sessions. If the SLV ETF breaks down from these levels, traders could see a move back into the price channel with lows near $16.50. If the ETF breaks out higher, traders could see a move toward R1 resistance levels at $18.05 or R2 resistance levels near $18.94.
The author holds no position in the stock(s) mentioned except through passively managed index funds.