What Is the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)?
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey, administered by The Conference Board, that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation. The CCI is based on the premise that if consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to a recession.
- The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey, administered by The Conference Board, that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation.
- The CCI assumes when consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy, but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to a recession.
- The CCI is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey.
Consumer Confidence Index
Understanding Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
The CCI is released on the last Tuesday of every month and it is widely regarded as the most credible gauge of U.S. consumer confidence. Essentially, it is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy and is based on consumers perceptions of current business and employment condition, and their expectations for business, employment, and income for the next six months. CCI is conducted by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics on consumers' buying and watching habits.
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey, which has a responding sample size of 3,000 questionnaires. The survey was initially conducted every two months starting in 1967 but changed to monthly tracking in 1977. There are five questions asked—two related to present economic conditions and three related to future expectations.
Present Situation Index
- Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions
- Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions
- Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence
- Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence
- Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence
Each response can be answered with one of three responses: positive, negative, or neutral. There is also a present situation index, which is an average of two questions related to current economic conditions. The responses to the other three questions form the basis for the expectations index.
Once the data has been gathered, the relative value of each question is calculated which is then compared against each relative value from 1985, which is set as a benchmark of 100. This comparison of the relative values results in an "index value" for each question.
Criticisms of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
While some in the economic community see the CCI as a lagging indicator, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) considers consumer confidence to be a leading indicator which would make the CCI a leading economic indicator for the U.S. economy. Leading indicators provide qualitative information used to monitor the current economic situation and as a warning of turning points in economic activity.
In November 2020, The Conference Board announced that CCI had declined sharply to 96.1 from its October 2020 reading of 101.4. Both the 'present situation index' and the 'expectations index' also fell with the former, posting a 105.9 for November 2020 (versus 106.2 in the prior month), while the latter dropped to a reading of 89.5 (versus the 98.2 posted in October 2020).
According to Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:
Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October. Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association. It was formed in 1916 and its mission is to provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Board is designed to help its members understand and navigate the most critical issues of the present time. The Board also conducts research and forums where business leaders convene. These insights feed into its research and meeting agendas.