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What is 'Central Limit Theorem - CLT'

The Central Limit Theorem - CLT states that when samples from a data set with a known variance are aggregated their mean roughly equals the population mean. Said another way, CLT is a statistical theory that states that given a sufficiently large sample size from a population with a finite level of variance, the mean of all samples from the same population will be approximately equal to the mean of the population. Furthermore, all of the samples will follow an approximate normal distribution pattern, with all variances being approximately equal to the variance of the population divided by each sample's size.

BREAKING DOWN 'Central Limit Theorem - CLT'

According to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), the mean of a sample of data will be closer to the mean of the overall population in question as the sample size increases, notwithstanding the actual distribution of the data, and whether it is normal or non-normal. As a general rule, sample sizes equal to or greater than 30 are considered sufficient for the central limit theorem to hold, meaning the distribution of the sample means is fairly normally distributed.

The Central Limit Theorem in Finance

The central limit theorem is very useful when examining returns for a given stock or index because it simplifies many analysis procedures. An appropriate sample size depends on the data available, but generally speaking, having a sample size of at least 50 observations is sufficient. Due to the relative ease of generating financial data, it is often easy to produce much larger sample sizes. The central limit theorem is the basis for sampling in statistics, so it holds the foundation for sampling and statistical analysis in finance as well. Investors of all types rely on the central limit theorem to analyze stock returns, construct portfolios and manage risk.

Example of Central Limit Theorem

If an investor is looking to analyze the overall return for a stock index made up of 1,000 stocks, he can take random samples of stocks from the index to get an estimate for the return of the total index. The samples must be random, and at least 30 stocks must be evaluated in each sample for the central limit theorem to hold. Random samples ensure a broad range of stock across industries and sectors is represented in the sample. Stocks previously selected must also be replaced for selection in other samples to avoid bias. The average returns from these samples approximates the return for the whole index and are approximately normally distributed. The approximation holds even if the actual returns for the whole index are not normally distributed.

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