DEFINITION of Clive W.J. Granger

Clive W.J. Granger (1934-2009) was an econometrician who received the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics, along with Robert Engle, for work on cointegration, an analysis of time-series data that helps forecast market movements and economic trends. His other major contribution was the concept of Granger causality. Granger's analytical methods became widely used by governments, world banks, economists and academics.

BREAKING DOWN Clive W.J. Granger

Cointegration is statistical term for the differentiation between and analytical combination of short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. The intellectual roots of this Nobel Prize-winning theory were formed at Princeton University's Morgenstern's Econometric Research Project, where he and another researcher worked on "Time Series Project" in the 1960s. It wasn't until 1975 when he met Robert Engle of MIT, with whom he would later collaborate to develop the cointegration theory. Dr. Granger retired in 2003 after 48 years of teaching and research. He spent a majority of that time at the University of California at San Diego.

A Humble Man With a Sense of Humor, the official website of the Nobel Prize, contains biographical information on each winner. Sometimes a winner will write an autobiographical synopsis to give the reader a first-person perspective that brings out character or personality. Dr. Granger wrote a lengthy autobiographical summary of his life's journey to the prize, citing numerous "lucky breaks," without which many of his achievements would not have been possible. He also credited many individuals with his successful career and full life. Referring to his long honeymoon trip camping, "after twelve thousand spectacular miles we still liked each other and I had acquired a beard." He also wrote, "even in general life I feel I am often fortunate, coming across useful information or scarce parking spaces."