Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation. It is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. It should not be confused with deflation, which can be harmful to the economy.
Disinflation is commonly used by the Federal Reserve to describe a period of slowing inflation. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation. Although sometimes confused with deflation, disinflation is not considered problematic because prices do not actually drop, and disinflation does not usually signal the onset of a slowing economy. Deflation is represented as a negative growth rate, such as -1%, while disinflation is shown as a change in the inflation rate from 3% one year to 2% the next. Disinflation is considered the opposite of reflation, which occurs when a government stimulates an economy by increasing money supply.
A healthy amount of disinflation is necessary because it represents economic contraction and prevents the economy from overheating. As such, instances of disinflation are not uncommon and are viewed as normal during healthy economic times. Disinflation benefits certain segments of a population, such as people who are inclined to save their earnings.
Causes of Disinflation
Several main reasons can cause an economy to experience disinflation. If a central bank decides to impose a tighter monetary policy and the government starts to sell off some of its securities, it could reduce the supply of money in the economy, causing a disinflationary effect. Similarly, a contraction in the business cycle, or a recession can also cause disinflation. For example, businesses may choose not to increase prices to gain greater market share, leading to disinflation.
Disinflation Since 1980
The U.S. economy experienced one of its longest periods of disinflation from 1980 through 2015. During the 1970s, the rapid rise of inflation came to be known as the Great Inflation, with prices increasing more than 110% during the decade. The annual rate of inflation topped out at 14.76% in early 1980. Following the implementation of aggressive monetary policies by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation, the increase in prices slowed in the 1980s, rising just 59% for the period. In the decade of the 1990s, prices rose 32%, followed by a 27% increase between 2000 and 2009, and a 9% increase between 2010 and 2015.
During this period of disinflation, stocks performed well, averaging 8.65% in real returns between 1982 and 2015. Disinflation also allowed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the 2000s, which led to bonds generating above-average returns.
The danger that disinflation presents is when the rate of inflation falls near to zero, as it did in 2015, raising the specter of deflation. Although the rate of inflation turned negative briefly in 2015, concerns over deflation were dismissed because it was largely attributed to falling energy prices. Some economists view the near-zero rate of inflation in 2015 as a bottom, with the expectation, or hope, the rate of inflation will begin to rise again. As of January 2018, the rate of inflation stands at 2.1%, with projections for an increase to 2.38% later in the year.