What Is the Four Percent Rule?
The 4% rule is a rule of thumb used to determine how much a retiree should withdraw from a retirement account each year. This rule seeks to provide a steady income stream to the retiree while also maintaining an account balance that keeps income flowing through retirement. Experts consider the 4% withdrawal rate to be safe, as the withdrawals will consist primarily of interest and dividends.
Why The 4% Rule No Longer Works For Retirees
- The 4% rule states that you should withdraw 4% of your portfolio each year in retirement for a comfortable life.
- It was created using historical data on stock and bond returns over a 50-year period.
Understanding the Four Percent Rule
The 4% rule helps financial planners and retirees set a portfolio's withdrawal rate. Life expectancy plays an important role in determining if this rate will be sustainable, as retirees who live longer need their portfolios to last longer, and medical costs and other expenses can increase as retirees age.
Origins of the Four Percent Rule
The 4% rule was created using historical data on stock and bond returns over the 50-year period from 1926 to 1976. Before the early 1990s, experts generally considered 5% to be a safe amount for retirees to withdraw each year. Skeptical of whether this amount was sufficient, financial advisor William Bengen conducted an exhaustive study of historical returns in 1994, focusing heavily on the severe market downturns of the 1930s and early 1970s. Bengen concluded that, even during untenable markets, no historical case existed in which a four percent annual withdrawal exhausted a retirement portfolio in less than 33 years.
Accounting for Inflation
While some retirees who adhere to the 4% rule keep their withdrawal rate constant, the rule allows retirees to increase the rate to keep pace with inflation. Possible ways to adjust for inflation include setting a flat annual increase of 2% per year, which is the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate, or adjusting withdrawals based on actual inflation rates. The former method provides steady and predictable increases, while the latter method more effectively matches income to cost-of-living changes.
When to Avoid the Four Percent Rule
There are several scenarios in which the 4% rule might not work for a retiree. A person whose portfolio features higher-risk investments than typical index funds and bonds needs to be more conservative when withdrawing money, particularly during the early years of retirement. A severe or protracted market downturn can erode the value of a high-risk investment vehicle much faster than it can a typical retirement portfolio.
Further, the 4% rule does not work unless a retiree remains loyal to it year in and year out. Violating the rule one year to splurge on a major purchase can have severe consequences down the road, as this reduces the principal, which directly impacts the compound interest that the retiree depends on for sustainability.
The Four Percent Rule and Economic Crises
Actually, the 4% rule may be a little on the conservative side. According to Michael Kitces, an investment planner, it was developed to take into account the worst economic situations, such as 1929, and has held up well for those who retired during the two most recent financial crises. "The 2000 retiree is merely ‘in line’ with the 1929 retiree, and doing better than the rest. And the 2008 retiree – even having started with the global financial crisis out of the gate – is already doing far better than any of these historical scenarios!" Kitces points out. "In other words, while the tech crash and especially the global financial crisis were scary, they still haven’t been the kind of scenarios that spell outright doom for the 4% rule."
This is, of course, not a reason to go beyond it. Safety is a key element for retirees, even if following it may leave those who retire in calmer economic times "with a huge amount of money left over," Kitces notes, adding that "in general a 4% withdrawal rate is really quite modest relative to the long-term historical average return of almost 8% on a balanced (60/40) portfolio!"