Table of Contents

Super Bowl Indicator Definition

By

James Chen

Updated February 10, 2022

Reviewed by

Anthony Battle

Fact checked by

Timothy Li

What Is the Super Bowl Indicator?

The Super Bowl Indicator is a nonscientific barometer of the stock market. The idea behind the indicator is that a Super Bowl win for an NFL American Football Conference team predicts a stock market decline (a bear market) in the next year. On the other hand, a win for a team from the National Football Conference foretells a rise in the market or a bull run in the upcoming year. Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for The New York Times, first introduced the Super Bowl Indicator in 1978. Up until that point, the Super Bowl Indicator had never been wrong.

Key Takeaways

The premise of the Super Bowl indicator is the theory that a Super Bowl win for a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) of the National Football League (NFL) foretells a decline in the stock market (a bear market) in the upcoming year.
Conversely, a win for a team from the NFL’s National Football Conference (NFC) means the stock market will rise in the coming year (a bull market).
As a means of predicting the stock market, the Super Bowl Indicator is completely irrelevant: There’s no reason to believe that the winner of a football game dictates the performance of the stock market.

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Market Indicators: InvestoTrivia

Understanding the Super Bowl Indicator

At one point in time, the Super Bowl Indicator boasted a more than 90% success rate in predicting the up-or-down outcome of the S&P (Standard & Poor’s) 500 before the Dot Com years (1998-2001). However, the old maxim applies: Correlation does not imply causation.

The indicator has one very glaring caveat: It counts the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team with an NFL-leading six Super Bowl wins in all, in the NFC, because that’s where the team got its start back in 1933, as an original NFL franchise. It seemingly doesn’t matter that Pittsburgh won all its Super Bowls as an AFC team. Skeptics note that the Steelers won 27% of the Super Bowls by the time it claimed its third for the 1978 season, the year when the index got its start. Some argue that Koppett included the caveat about original NFL teams from the AFC essentially counting as NFC teams within the indicator for this reason.

As of February 2021, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 54 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. This is a success rate of 74%. It failed to predict a down market in both 2016 and 2017, when the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, both original AFC teams, won Super Bowls. Also of note: In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC) winning the Super Bowl, which supposedly indicated a bull market, the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression.

The Super Bowl Indicator is an example of purely fun sports writing. There is no real connection between a football team in a particular league and the U.S. stock market; so, any relationship that can be drawn between the two is purely a coincidence. What began as an interesting column many decades ago continues to make a new headline at least once a year.

As a means of predicting the stock market, the Super Bowl Indicator is completely irrelevant: There’s no reason to believe that the winner of a football game dictates the performance of the stock market. However, that hasn’t stopped people from talking and writing about it for the past four decades.

S&P 500 Performance Over Past Super Bowls

Year	Winner	League	Conference	S&P 500 Price Return	Prediction
2022	Los Angeles Rams	NFL	NFC	TBD	TBD
2021	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFL	NFC	14.51%	Right
2020	Kansas City Chiefs	AFL	AFC	15.76%	Wrong
2019	New England Patriots	AFL	AFC	30.43%	Wrong
2018	Philadelphia Eagles	NFL	NFC	−6.24%	Wrong
2017	New England Patriots	AFL	AFC	21.83%	Wrong
2016	Denver Broncos	AFL	AFC	11.96%	Wrong
2015	New England Patriots	AFL	AFC	−0.73%	Right
2014	Seattle Seahawks	Expansion team	NFC	13.69%	Right
2013	Baltimore Ravens	Expansion team	AFC	32.39%	Wrong
2012	New York Giants	NFL	NFC	16.00%	Right
2011	Green Bay Packers	NFL	NFC	−1.12%	Wrong
2010	New Orleans Saints	NFL	NFC	15.06%	Right
2009	Pittsburgh Steelers	NFL	AFC	26.46%	Right
2008	New York Giants	NFL	NFC	−37.00%	Wrong

Article Sources

Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.

Vintage Value Investing. "The Super Bowl 54 Stock Market Indicator."
The Street. "The Super Bowl Indicator Works 94% of the Time When This is True."
CME Group. "What to Make of the Super Bowl Indicator."
Vintage Value Investing. "The Super Bowl Stock Market Indicator."
Snopes. "The Super Bowl Indicator."
Herald-Tribune. "Super Bowl Predicator Fumbles Stock Market Forecast for Third Year."
CNBC. "Why Markets Should Root for Giants in Super Bowl."

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