Super Bowl Indicator

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DEFINITION of 'Super Bowl Indicator'

An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the National Football Conference (NFC), or the old National Football League (NFL) before the merger of NFL and American Football League (AFL) in 1966, means the stock market will be up for the year. The Super Bowl indicator was first introduced in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for The New York Times. 

BREAKING DOWN 'Super Bowl Indicator'

Though historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate, remember the old maxim: correlation does not imply causation. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC) winning the Super Bowl (indicating a Bull Market), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression. Though the indicator is an interesting take on predicting the stock market, by no means should the correlation dictate an individual's portfolio construction.

S&P 500 Performance Over the Last 10 Super Bowls 

Year Winner League Conference S&P 500 Price Return Prediction
2016 Denver Broncos  AFL AFC 11.24% Wrong
2015 New England Patriots  AFL AFC -0.69% Right
2014 Seattle Seahawks  Expansion team NFC 12.39% Right
2013 Baltimore Ravens  Expansion team AFC 26.39% Wrong
2012 New York Giants  NFL NFC 11.68% Right
2011 Green Bay Packers NFL NFC -1.12% Wrong 
2010  New Orleans Saints NFL NFC 11.00% Right 
2009 Pittsburg Steelers  NFL AFC 19.67% Right
2008 New York Giants  NFL NFC -37.58% Wrong 
2007 Indianapolis Colts  NFL AFC 3.65% Right