Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shares fell more than 6% during Thursday's session after third quarter deliveries came in at 97,000 – short of the 100,000 analyst estimate. JMP Securities is concerned that consumer demand for the Model 3 may be leveling off given that there were no operational issue that would have prevented Tesla from delivering more vehicles.
The good news is that Model 3 deliveries came in at 79,600, which was higher than the Street's 77,010 estimate. After Tesla's recent cash raise, Wedbush Securities says that the "doomsday scenario" is off the table and that investors are more concerned about profits into 2020. The market will be keeping a close eye on fourth quarter guidance later this month.
In September, the auto industry experienced a sharp slowdown in new car sales as Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) and Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) both reported double-digit declines that were worse than analyst estimates. However, the seasonal adjusted annualized rate, or SAAR, suggests less of a decline when factoring in month-to-month volatility in car sales.
From a technical standpoint, the stock broke down from its 50-day moving average at $231.80 to test trendline support levels. The relative strength index (RSI) remains in neutral territory with a reading of 44.26, but the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) could see a near-term downturn if the stock fails to post a recovery.
Traders should watch for a breakdown from trendline support, which could lead to a move lower to retest lows of around $210.00. If Tesla stock rebounds, traders should watch for a move higher to retest reaction highs of $250.00 or the 200-day moving average at $258.66. The next major catalyst will be the company's third quarter financial results.
The author holds no position in the stock(s) mentioned except through passively managed index funds.