A gain of 40% the past two months (Sept. 30 through Nov. 29) for shares of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) likely was a result of heavy selling getting overdone. I actually wrote about the huge selling two months ago and suggested that shares were ready to bounce. You can see that write-up here.
A great way to uncover tomorrow's winners is to look for great stocks being sold unfairly, and The Trade Desk was likely swept up in the software pullback. Now, the shares are starting to see buy signals.
Smart money managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks … the best in class. For Mapsignals, it's not enough to look at technicals and fundamentals alone. The key lies in the demand for shares … the big money.
I'll go into the fundamental picture later, but the true tell on the near-term trajectory of a stock lies in its trading activity. Simply put, it's all about supply and demand. When demand is higher than supply, the stock rises. When demand is lower than supply, stocks fall. For 2019, The Trade Desk has ramped higher on increasing volumes. All stocks have pullbacks from time to time, but the long-term winners tend to bounce back … and quickly.
For Mapsignals, when we look for an entry on a leading stock, we look for big money signals. Just to show you what our big money activity signals look like, have a look at all of the big money (unusual institutional) signals The Trade Desk stock has made over the past year. The chart is simple – we think the fewer indicators, the better. Focusing on 2019, you can see a lot of buy signals (green) all year until the big software sell-off. What's happening now is that big buying is rushing in:
In 2019, The Trade Desk stock has logged 14 big money buy signals, indicative of buying in the shares (see chart above). This shows that traders are likely thinking that the shares are poised to head higher. These data points suggest that big money appetite for the stock is high.
If you are going to make a bet on the direction of a stock, it is prudent to pay attention to how the shares are trading. Based on history, the odds suggest that The Trade Desk shares are poised for gains. The big money is always looking for an opportunity to buy shares in fast-growing companies. It's all about playing the odds by not fighting the trend.
Mapsignals' goal is to identify tomorrow's top stocks today. We're basically looking for outlier companies with healthy fundamentals accompanied by big money signals (outsized institutional activity). We are looking for the big money bets because big money moves stocks. By studying these data points, we can make an educated guess as to which stocks institutions are trafficking in and marry this information with fundamentally sound companies. We want the odds on our side when looking for the highest-quality stocks.
When we decide on a long candidate, we consider leaders that have a history of technical outperformance. When they show leadership, we see these as opportunities. The following are a few areas in which The Trade Desk stock has grabbed our attention:
- Two-month outperformance vs. market: +34.50% vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Two-month outperformance vs. software ETF: +30.91% vs. iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV)
- Recent big money buy signals
Now, we take it a step further and score the best stocks showing big money trading activity. Below you can see that The Trade Desk has shown top-rated buy signals for Mapsignals since 2017. The main takeaway is how the buy signals tend to come in clusters. We believe that, with a small pullback, an entry could be attractive before shares move higher:
On top of a long-term technical picture that is strong, one should also look under the hood to see if the fundamental picture supports a long-term investment. As you can see, The Trade Desk's numbers are very strong:
- One-year revenue growth rate: +54.86%
- One-year earnings growth rate: +10%
The Trade Desk shares are breaking out as the market is at new highs. The company is quietly gaining with demand for its shares. We like the long-term story of the stock. The narrative for The Trade Desk and other high-quality software stocks is one of growth in the years ahead.
We are always on the lookout for great companies pressing higher year after year. The best companies in a group tend to outperform over the long run. Technology stocks have been one of the strongest sectors in recent months. All of this points to a long-term opportunity for the stock.
The Bottom Line
The Trade Desk stock is breaking out with buying pressure. Our big money indicator is signaling that we should take notice. Shares could be positioned for more upside. Given the historical growth in share price and growing fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.
Disclosure: The author holds no position in The Trade Desk shares at the time of publication.