The Yield Curve's Recession Warning is Getting Louder

A historically reliable recession indicator is signaling a downturn

By
Diccon Hyatt
Diccon Hyatt
Full Bio
Diccon Hyatt is an experienced financial and economics reporter who has covered the pandemic-era economy in hundreds of stories over the past two years. He's written hundreds of stories breaking down complex financial topics in plainspoken language, emphasizing the impact that economic currents would have on individuals' finances and the market. He's also worked at The Balance, U.S. 1, Community News Service and the Middletown Transcript.
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Published February 16, 2023
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A historically reliable recession indicator has been flashing a warning since last summer, and it’s only getting louder.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The yield curve has been inverted since July, a signal of an impending recession.
  • Historically, when the yield curve inverts, a recession almost always follows.
  • Some economists think this inversion may be different because it was caused by the pandemic.

Ever since July, 2-year Treasurys have offered higher yields than 10-year ones. Last month the spread between them opened to the widest margin since 1981, and it’s hovered near there ever since. In the past when shorter-term securities offered higher yields, a recession was imminent, as the chart below shows. 


An inverted yield curve is an abnormal state of affairs that traditionally indicates something is wrong in the economy. In normal times, bonds with longer maturities have higher yields than those with shorter terms because investors want to be compensated for the uncertainty of a longer-term investment. When the opposite is true, it indicates that investors are betting on a downturn in the near future. 

“When long rates fall below short term yields, that has historically been a fairly good guide to recession risks ahead, better, it’s often noted, than the track record of my own economics profession,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary last week. “The only recession it failed to clearly signal was the 2020 COVID shock, which came on too suddenly, and from a non-economic source.”

Granted, that association is true until it isn’t. Economists at Goldman Sachs made the case in a research note Wednesday that this time might be different, and that the unusual economic circumstances brought about by the pandemic may have negated the yield curve’s predictive powers. 

Nevertheless, the ongoing yield curve inversion is one indicator of many that the economy is slowing down because of the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation interest rate hikes, and could enter a recession soon. Economists at Goldman Sachs recently pegged the odds of a recession at 25% in the next year, while a Bloomberg survey of economists put the chances at 65%.

Article Sources
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  1. YCharts. "10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread."

  2. CIBC Capital Markets. "A reprieve or a stay of execution?"

  3. Goldman Sachs. "Why this yield curve may not signal a U.S. recession."

  4. Bloomberg. "Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds to 25% on Jobs, Business Outlook."

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