The Conference Board: These Industries Could Be First In Line For Recession Layoffs

A new index measures likelihood of job loss by industry

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If you’re a college professor, your job is probably safe in a recession. Work in transportation? Maybe start brushing off your resume. 

That’s according to The Conference Board, a nonprofit economics think tank, which released an analysis Wednesday showing which industries were likely to lose the most jobs if and when a long-anticipated recession comes to pass. The board’s new job loss risk index takes multiple factors into account including how sensitive industries are to interest rate hikes, pre-pandemic employment trends, and how much of the workforce is college-educated.

It may not be too surprising that information services—the industry that includes tech companies and media companies—tops the list, given the high-profile waves of layoffs that have already occurred in the sector. The very safest jobs are to be found in private educational services, which includes universities and colleges, where labor demand tends to hold steady no matter the state of the economy, according to the analysis.

Fortunately for workers, economists at The Conference Board say employers may be reluctant to lay off people who were difficult and expensive to recruit in the first place due to an ongoing labor shortage. That means there will likely be fewer job losses this time around than in past recessions. 

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  1. The Conference Board. "Job Loss Risk Index: Which Industries Will Suffer the Greatest Layoffs This Recession?"

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