Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - March 15, 2023: Rates Move Up

After sinking more than a third of a point across the previous two days, 30-year mortgage rates reclaimed some of that ground Tuesday with a modest bump up. Across other mortgage types, Tuesday's movements were mixed.

Today's National Mortgage Rate Averages

The 30-year mortgage average reversed direction Tuesday, climbing eight basis points after dropping a bold 36 points in the two days prior. The average is now up to 6.97%, which puts it well above the five-month low of 6.11% registered in early February, but still 63 basis points cheaper than October's historic 20-year peak of 7.58%.

Rates on 15-year loans climbed similarly, gaining nine basis points to reach an average of 6.25%. The 15-year average had sunk as low as 5.23% on February 2, but compared to the 15-year peak of 7.03% reached in October, the current 15-year average is still 78 basis points lower.

Jumbo 30-year rates meanwhile dipped below 6% for the first time in a month. Shedding 12 basis points Tuesday, the Jumbo 30-year average is down to 5.90%, leaving it 37 basis points below October's 12-year high of 6.27%.

Tuesday's refinancing rates for 30-year and 15-year loans moved more substantially than new purchase rates. The 30-year refi average added a bold 17 basis points, and the 15-year refi average, 12 points. Like its new purchase counterpart, the Jumbo 30-year refi average dropped 12 basis points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 39 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022. Indeed, the 30-year average's mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge in September and October dramatically outdid the summer high, with the 30-year average ultimately reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting will conclude March 22.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country's top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.